No.

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — An offer of NATO membership to territory under Kyiv’s control would end “the hot stage of the war” in Ukraine, but any proposal to join the military alliance should be extended to all parts of the country that fall under internationally recognized borders, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a broadcast interview.

 

Zelenskyy’s remarks on Friday signaled a possible way forward to the difficult path Ukraine faces to future NATO membership. At their summit in Washington in July, the 32 members declared Ukraine on an “irreversible” path to membership.

 

However, one obstacle to moving forward has been the view that Ukraine’s borders would need to be clearly demarcated before it could join so that there can be no mistaking where the alliance’s pact of mutual defense would come into effect.

 

“You can’t give an invitation to just one part of a country,” Zelenskyy said in an excerpt of the interview with Sky News. “Why? Because thus you would recognize that Ukraine is only that territory of Ukraine and the other one is Russia.”

First, Russia, and more specifically, Putin, will not stand for it. Ukraine joining NATO is a red line for him and the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO helped precipitate this war. To understand why, look at a map. For centuries, Russia has feared invasion from the West. That fear is not without basis. See: Adolphus, Napoleon, Hitler, and many others who would have liked to try.

Russia’s western border is very long with few natural boundaries. To counter this, Russia’s traditional foreign policy has been to create and manage a buffer zone by conquering territory or leveraging allied buffer states. It has been this way for centuries.

Ukraine has a long border that juts into the southwest corner of Russia. Russia, and more specifically, Putin, views a NATO country that close to Moscow to be an existential threat. You may disagree with the argument that Putin’s fears are unfounded because NATO is a defensive organization. Your disagreement does not matter to Russia. Put yourself in their shoes. If China or Russia formed a military alliance with Canada or Mexico, we’d be a bit skittish too.

Second, there is nothing but downside for NATO countries to allow Ukraine to join. That math may have been a bit different before the war, but we must deal with the realities before us. Ukraine’s military capacity has been severely depleted. They bring nothing to the alliance. Instead, Ukraine would be outsourcing their military defense to the other NATO countries. They would be a military welfare state.

At the same time, allowing Ukraine into NATO dramatically increases the threat of a violent confrontation with Russia. See above. Put together, Ukraine joining NATO would obligate NATO countries to defend it while increasing the likelihood of needing to do so. It may not happen right away, but it will happen. The geopolitical realities don’t change even if we reach a temporary peace in Ukraine. It’s all upside for Ukraine. It’s all downside for every other NATO country.

Zelenskyy is looking for a way out of the war with the prospect of the military gravy train drying up. We should not let the prospect of a near-term peace doom us to a long-term war with a nuclear power.