Boots & Sabers

The blogging will continue until morale improves...

Category: Economy

Credit Card Companies Pause Effort to Track Gun Purchases

It’s just a pause, but the news is welcome. I don’t think Visa and Mastercard understand the American gun-owning consumer very well. They stand to lose a lot of revenue as we just use cash.

Visa and Mastercard paused their decision to start categorizing purchases at gun shops, a significant win for conservative groups and Second Amendment advocates who felt tracking gun shop purchases would inadvertently discriminate against legal firearms purchases.

The move is a setback for gun control groups. They say categorizing credit and debit card purchases might help authorities see potential red flags — like significant ammunition purchases — before a mass shooting could be carried out.

After Visa and Mastercard announced their plans to implement a separate merchant category code for gun shop purchases, the payment networks got significant pushback from the gun lobby as well as conservative politicians. A group of 24 GOP state attorneys general wrote a letter to the payment networks threatening legal action against them if they moved forward with their plan.

[…]

In a statement, Visa indicated that the legal pushback was partially the reason it paused the implementation.

“There is now significant confusion and legal uncertainty in the payments ecosystem, and the state actions disrupt the intent of global standards,” the company said.

Visa and Mastercard have said the gun shop categorization was a decision out of their control. The International Organization for Standardization, better known as ISO, is the group that categorizes merchant codes and Visa and Mastercard were just following their decision, the companies said. Gun control advocates lobbied for the change to ISO, not to Visa and Mastercard.

Another Bailout?

Decisions will be made soon.

Silicon Valley Bank was aptly named: It held the funds of hundreds of U.S. tech companies and was a crucial player in the valley’s economy. But on Friday, it became the second largest bank failure in U.S. history after a rapid run on its deposits. Some $175 billion in customer accounts were taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), which is now tasked with returning money to the bank’s customers.

 

But more than 85% of the bank’s deposits were uninsured, according to estimates in a recent regulatory filing. That’s because FDIC deposit insurance is meant for everyday bank customers and maxes out at $250,000. Many Silicon Valley startups had millions, or even hundreds of millions of dollars deposited at the bank—money they used to run their companies and pay employees. Right now, nobody’s sure how much of that cash is left.

 

The tech sector was already wading through a harsh macroeconomic climate, with layoffs abounding and stock prices sinking precipitously. Silicon Valley Bank’s downfall is likely to exacerbate those problems—and could threaten the wider economy. “It’s like a Lehman Brothers moment for Silicon Valley,” says one Silicon Valley startup founder whose company has millions of dollars tied up in SVB. “It feels like something that never should have happened, because it’s such a trustworthy entity.” The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are worried about losing customers over their ties to SVB.

Insured to $250k means exactly that. The taxpayers should not be on the hook for anything above that. Does it suck for the depositors? Absolutely. Is it tragic for the people who won’t get paid next week because the money is gone? I can’t imagine the stress. It sucks. It all sucks.

But terms are terms and contracts are contracts. We have to stop the madness of thinking that the American taxpayers will ride to the rescue every time bad things happen in the private sector. There is too much money in the economy chasing too few goods. Hence, inflation. While it sucks, the evaporation of billions of dollars out of the economy is a necessary evil to stymie the larger evil of inflation. I continue to contend that the best thing would be for the federal government to cancel much of the inflationary spending, but absent the political will to do that, the private sector will have to contract to let the air out of the inflationary bubble.

Warning to all. If you have more than $250k in a bank, you should spread your money into multiple banks or accept the risk.

Silicon Bank Collapse

The Fed’s efforts to deflate the economy to stem inflation is working. Sort of. The problem is that there will be unforeseen consequences. A better way to cool inflation would be for the federal government to pull back hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars that are committed, but not yet spent, as part of the various spending sprees of the past five years.

Regulators shuttered SVB Friday and seized its deposits in the largest U.S. banking failure since the 2008 financial crisis and the second-largest ever. The company’s downward spiral began late Wednesday, when it surprised investors with news that it needed to raise $2.25 billion to shore up its balance sheet. What followed was the rapid collapse of a highly-respected bank that had grown alongside its technology clients.

 

Even now, as the dust begins to settle on the second bank wind-down announced this week, members of the VC community are lamenting the role that other investors played in SVB’s demise.

 

“This was a hysteria-induced bank run caused by VCs,” Ryan Falvey, a fintech investor of Restive Ventures, told CNBC. “This is going to go down as one of the ultimate cases of an industry cutting its nose off to spite its face.”

 

The episode is the latest fallout from the Federal Reserve’s actions to stem inflation with its most aggressive rate hiking campaign in four decades. The ramifications could be far-reaching, with concerns that startups may be unable to pay employees in coming days, venture investors may struggle to raise funds, and an already-battered sector could face a deeper malaise.

 

The roots of SVB’s collapse stem from dislocations spurred by higher rates. As startup clients withdrew deposits to keep their companies afloat in a chilly environment for IPOs and private fundraising, SVB found itself short on capital. It had been forced to sell all of its available-for-sale bonds at a $1.8 billion loss, the bank said late Wednesday.

Michigan to Return to Forced Unionization

This could be a boon for Wisconsin if we had a governor who knew how to play it. Instead, I’m sure Indiana will appreciate the new manufacturing jobs.

LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Michigan’s Democratic-led Legislature moved Wednesday to repeal the state’s “right-to-work” law that was passed more than a decade ago when Republicans controlled the Statehouse.

 

Repealing the law, which prohibits public and private unions from requiring that nonunion employees pay union dues even if the union bargains on their behalf, has been a top priority for Democrats since they took full control of the state government this year. Party leaders announced Tuesday that they planned bring the repeal to a vote in the state House on Wednesday.

 

The state House is also expected to vote Wednesday on restoring the state’s prevailing wage law, which requires contractors hired for state projects to pay union-level wages. The House Labor Committee advanced the bills early Wednesday along party lines.

 

Government Stewardship Programs Are Choking Wisconsin Communities

Again we find that, too often, environmental causes are used as the excuse to obliterate private property and individual rights – the underpinnings of a free society. This is a very good piece by Richard Moore about how government stewardship programs are choking the North Woods to death. Here’s a part:

The reason is pretty simple and straightforward: These purchases of land and easements have reached the point where they pose an existential threat to life in the Northwoods. This purchase alone would place more than 80 percent of the land in the town of Monico under government ownership and/or control, obliterating any chance the town would have to develop economically in the future. Just over 30 percent of all of Oneida County is owned by government—state, county, federal—and as the number of privately-held or controlled acres dwindles, so does any realistic chance to diversify and grow vibrant economies and robust, cohesive communities.

 

Speaking to the Oneida County board of supervisors this past week, Felzkowski put it this way:

 

The purchase of land north of Hwy. 64 has got to stop if we are ever going to see economic vitality up here. The towns can’t afford EMS services. Our schools have declining enrollment.

 

The senator offered up some shocking statistics to underscore how extensive and far-reaching these land control schemes have become. All totaled, Felzkowski said, about 5.9 million acres of land in Wisconsin are publicly held:

 

Those 5.9 million acres of land are larger than the state of Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island and is equal to the state of Vermont.

 

The counties of Forest, Florence, Langlade, Lincoln, Oneida and Vilas—some of the poorest counties in the state—have 1.3 million acres of public land, Felzkowski said:

 

Florence County is 45.7 percent publicly owned, or 32 acres per resident. Forest County is 59.7 percent publicly owned, or 42 acres per resident. Langlade County is 32.6 percent publicly owned, or 9 acres per resident. Oneida County is 30 percent publicly owned, which equates out to 6 acres per resident.

 

By contrast, Dane County is 3.8 percent public land, which is less than one half of 1 percent per resident, Felzkowski said.

 

[…]

 

When 80 percent of a town is owned by government, it’s effectively a government town. The private sector withers and dies, and the town withers and dies with it. The Northwoods would become a pristine but empty wilderness devoted entirely to wildlife and elite humans—the affluent bureaucrats and progressives who will, and have, used this as their private playgrounds.

 

For average families, there would be housing, no jobs, no schools, no room for them..

 

The Reverse Black Migration Continues

Huh… it’s almost as if black people like safe communities, good jobs, lower taxes, and a government that minds its own business. Who knew?

In a great reverse Black migration, Brookings data says four of the top five states for Black population gains since 2010 are Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida. Black people are driving U-Hauls to Texas, Georgia and Florida despite voter restrictions. A new Republican majority on North Carolina’s supreme court is reconsidering redistricting and voting restrictions ruled illegal by the court’s prior Democratic majority. Florida banned an Advanced Placement African American studies course. Texas and Florida are ending diversity, equity and inclusion in state agencies, and limiting the teaching of race in schools.

 

[…]

 

While Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida have gained 1.3 million Black residents since 1995, according to Brookings, New York, Illinois, California, and New Jersey are the top four states for losing Black people, to the tune of at least 1.5 million Black people. Recent stories in the New York Times and Washington Post, feature the massive declines in New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

 

In those cities, the cost of living on top of the grinding structural racism in housing, schools, jobs and entrepreneurship, chews at Black people more than red meat Southern politics. The Democrats can talk all the Black Lives Matter they want, but the nitty gritty of a roof over the head and bread on the table is more important than a ranting Ron DeSantis in Florida, a curmudgeonly Greg Abbott in Texas, or a combative Brian Kemp in Georgia.

 

What matters is that Black unemployment is higher in California, Illinois, and New York than in Florida, Georgia, or Texas. What matters is that of the 12 most segregated cities for Black people, as measured by Brookings, 11 of them are north of the Mason-Dixon Line.

Florida Applies Same Rules to All Amusement Parks

It’s nice to see the same rules applying to everyone.

In a move political observers viewed as retaliation, Florida lawmakers this month passed a bill, which DeSantis signed into law, that authorizes the governor to appoint five supervisors to oversee traditional municipal services, such a fire protection, public utilities, waste collection and road maintenance in the region where Disney World operates.

[…]

 

The new law changes the district’s name from the Reedy Creek Improvement District to the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District and subjects it to various layers of state oversight.

 

The creation of the self-governing district was instrumental in Disney’s decision to build near Orlando in the 1960s. The company had told the state it planned to build a futuristic city that would include a transit system and urban planning innovations, so it needed autonomy in building and deciding how to use the land. The futuristic city never materialized and instead morphed into a second theme park that opened in 1982.

DEI Layoffs Abound

You’ll notice that in this very long story, there is no mention as to whether or not the hiring of DEI officers actually improves diversity. It’s almost as if the whole point is to create jobs for the DEI industry. I would argue that a company can, and should, create a culture of inclusion, transparency, and excellence by focusing on merit and individualism. Such a culture encourages diversity. In a struggling economy, DEI officers are a luxury that only companies with weak cultures lean on.

Diversity, equity and inclusion leaders, who were hired in waves to help companies achieve an ethnically balanced workforce after George Floyd’s murder in 2020, are being phased out, surveys indicate, leaving experts in the field concerned that corporations’ talk of affecting change was just empty words.

DEI roles increased by 55% following demands for broader racial equity and justice after Floyd’s murder, the Society for Human Resource Management reported in 2020. But instead of creating fair opportunities and a comfortable work culture for Black employees, a pair of recent reports indicate, DEI professionals are losing their jobs, as layoffs across the economy have gained momentum.

[…]

Reyhan Ayas, a senior economist at Revelio Labs, which surveyed DEI layoffs, said the data shows the pledge to impact change was not followed by genuine effort.

“I always say that it is so easy to make public statements and commitments because no one will eventually check if you’re committed to the things that you committed to,” she said. “I can say: ‘I will be fully vegan by 2025’ because no one will ever call me in 2025 and ask me if I’m actually fully vegan. And that’s really what is going on here. In 2020, a lot of companies made big commitments, big statements around the DEI roles and goals. And as we are observing a turning of that tide, I think it’s very timely that we actually look into companies to see if they have kept up with those big statements they made.”

Restaurants Offer Subscription Services

Interesting concept.

Consumers are willing to pay monthly subscription fees for streaming services, pet food and even toilet paper – and now some U.S restaurants are betting they’ll do the same for their favorite meals.

 

Large American chains such as Panera and P.F. Chang’s as well as neighborhood hangouts are increasingly experimenting with the subscription model as a way to ensure steady revenue and customer visits. Some offer unlimited drinks or free delivery for a monthly fee; others will bring out your favorite starter each time you visit.

 

They’re following a trend: The average American juggled 6.7 subscriptions in 2022, up from 4.2 in 2019, according to Rocket Money, a personal finance app.

 

‘This is just another way for customers to provide a level of support and joy and love for our offerings,’ said Matt Baker, the chef at Gravitas, a Michelin-starred restaurant in Washington.

Meta Follows Twitter

There is something unsettling about these companies monetizing identity. Where will it lead?

For $11.99 a month on the web and $14.99 a month on iOS, users on Meta’s Instagram and Facebook platforms will be able to submit their government ID and get a blue verification badge. The service will be introduced in Australia and New Zealand this week, and more countries will follow, Zuckerberg said.

“This new feature is about increasing authenticity and security across our services,” Zuckerberg wrote in the post.

 

Meta has historically granted verification to notable users like politicians, executives, members of the press and organizations to signal their legitimacy. The company’s new subscription service is similar to Twitter’s revamped service called Twitter Blue, which also grants users a verification badge if they pay a monthly fee.

Copper Shortage Could Perpetuate Inflation

Argh

The world is currently facing a global copper shortage, fueled by increasingly challenging supply streams in South America and higher demand pressures.

Copper is a leading pulse check for economic health due to its incorporation in various uses such as electrical equipment and industrial machinery.

 

A copper squeeze could be an indicator that global inflationary pressures will worsen, and subsequently compel central banks to maintain their hawkish stance for longer.

 

“We’re already forecasting major deficits in copper to 2030,” said Wood Mackenzie’s Vice President of Metals and Mining, Robin Griffin. He attributed it largely to ongoing unrest in Peru and higher demand for copper in the energy transition industry.

Rural Housing Reeling From Remote Worker Boom/Bust

Again, the government response to the pandemic will reverberate for decades.

Small and midsize rural communities saw home prices surge during the first two years of the pandemic as workers with the newfound ability to do their jobs from anywhere relocated outside of city centers for more space and easy access to outdoor activities.

 

But that city-to-country migration has shown signs of reversing over the past year. Home buyers have been shopping for places closer to large metro areas, with cities like Washington and Los Angeles seeing population gains again in 2022. The shift comes as a growing number of employers are requiring workers to come back into the office — for the first time since the start of the pandemic, more than half of workers in major metro areas went into the office at least once from Jan. 18 to 25, according to data from the building security firm Kastle Systems.

 

[…]

 

All that should mean some relief for the housing markets in popular rural communities where home prices ballooned over the past two years from a burst of out-of-town buyers, pricing local workers out of the market. But residents and officials in the affected communities say that while the ranks of remote workers have ebbed, they have seen no relief from the massive housing shortages they spurred.

Dorows Eye Gun Range

This makes me like her more. Entreprenurial and firmly rooted in our American rights and heritage.

According to local news reports, Waukesha County Judge Jennifer Dorow, a conservative candidate, and her husband Brian, are developing an indoor gun range that would not only host weddings and other events, but would also serve alcohol. The couple requested a Class B liquor license to sell beer and wine to members and guests in the “clubhouse.” The range would also sell firearms and accessories on-site. The Dorows said in city documents that they devised an “alcohol safety policy” consisting of hand stamps to prevent members from entering the shooting range after drinking and a breathalyzer to be used on “suspicious individuals.”

Biden’s Whale-Killing Machines

What a mess.

State leaders and the Biden administration have homed in on the industry because the power of offshore winds can produce a rare round-the-clock source of greenhouse-gas-free electricity – and one difficult for future administrations to undo once turbines are in the ground. The administration set a goal for 30 gigawatts of new power from offshore wind by 2030. That is about 3 percent of what the country needs to get to 80 percent clean electricity by that time, according to estimates from a team led by University of California at Berkeley researchers.

 

The industry paid more than $5 billion to the federal government for the right to build off the coast as the Biden administration made a large number of leases available last year. Some of the world’s largest energy companies, including BP, Shell, Equinor and Duke Energy, now plan to spend billions more constructing thousands of skyscraper-size turbines off America’s shores that will produce enough juice to power roughly 7 million homes, according to the American Clean Power Association, a renewable-energy trade group.

 

The nation’s first large-scale project began construction off the coast of Massachusetts a little more than a year ago, and surveying vessels are now charting the East Coast for the next wave of construction. That work is happening in the same area where a die-off of humpback whales began seven years ago and where scientists and federal officials are now working to prevent the North Atlantic right whale, one of the world’s most endangered marine mammals, from going extinct.

 

“We have an unprecedented amount of whales dying here at the same time there is this industrial activity taking place on a scale that has never before happened in these waters,” said Cindy Zipf, executive director of Clean Ocean Action, a local nonprofit. “Why is this not being investigated? Why are these companies getting a pass?”

 

Achieving the Biden administration’s target would require the installation of thousands of the machines, which will tower as high as three Statues of Liberty stacked on top of one another when their blades reach for the sky. The blades alone can be the length of a football field.

 

But it has been slow going. There are only seven working offshore wind turbines in the entire United States at the moment. In Europe, there are more than 5,000. China also has thousands.

I doubt that the turbines are really killing whales, but it shows how difficult it is to get anything big done in America nowadays.

Biden Pushes for Less Affordable Housing

It’s like Democrats don’t know how real people think and act.

“In the absence of robust investments in fair and affordable housing, it is clear that additional timely executive action is needed to address the urgent issue of historically high rental costs and housing instability,” the lawmakers wrote. “…We urge your Administration to pursue all possible strategies to end corporate price gouging in the real estate sector.”

 

Specifically, lawmakers had called on the president to direct the FTC to issue new regulations defining excessive rent increases and enforce actions against rent gouging, suggestions that are aggressive than what the administration has so far put forth. The letter also asked to have FHFA put in place rent protection for tenants living in properties financed with government-backed mortgage properties, which is more closely aligned with what the president outlined on Wednesday.

 

In Wednesday’s announcement, the administration also sought to rally state and local governments — as well as the private sector — to protect renters.

 

The Wisconsin Housing and Economic Development Authority and Pennsylvania Housing Finance Agency, for instance, have agreed to cap annual rental increases to 5% per year for federal- or state-subsidized affordable housing.

Do you know what will result in even less affordable housing? The government punishing people who choose to build it and rent to marginal renters. If government is going to cap rents and make it impossible to evict deadbeats, landlords will just stop participating in that part of the market.

Land’s End Embraces Gen X

I’m glad to see them recognize their blunder and return to their core value.

Most retailers are tripping over themselves to stay relevant by courting younger Millennial and Gen Z shoppers. Not Lands’ End.

As it looks to grow its customer base, Lands’ End is bucking the trend by purposely embracing the “forgotten generation,” Gen Xers.

[…]

“There was a strategy at a point in time where we were going to bring in Millennials,” Lands’ End CEO Jerome Griffith, who is retiring at the end of January, said at the ICR conference last week. “It didn’t fly with our customers.”

In a rush to grab the attention of younger consumersthe retailer stumbled and made fashion missteps. Sales tumbled as its core older shoppers were put off by stylish dresses and high-heeled party shoes showing up next to the comfort clothing embraced by moms and dads.

“So we said, you know what, we have this neat generation of customers right behind baby boomers, the Gen Xers. As we go out to look for new consumers, let’s go after them,” he said.

Flights Grounded

The basic functions of government are breaking down.

All US domestic flights have been grounded for several hours because of a glitch with the flight control system.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) says there is a problem with the system that alerts pilots to potential hazards on flight routes.

 

It is working to restore it but says no flights will take off until at least 0900 ET (1400 GMT).

 

In a statement, the FAA said some functions were beginning to come back online, and would give updates later.

It was not immediately clear if the outage would impact international flights.

 

US President Joe Biden has been briefed about the outage, and the White House said there was no evidence of a cyberattack “at this point”.

In a tweet, the White House Press Secretary said the President had called for a “full investigation into the causes”.

The FAA said the problem lies with its Notice to Air Missions System.

Holiday Sales Up 7.6%

This is very close to the rate of inflation. It would seem to indicate that we collectively bought the same amount of stuff as last year but paid the inflated prices for it.

NEW YORK — Holiday sales rose this year as American spending remained resilient during the critical shopping season despite surging prices on everything from food to rent, according to one measure.

 

Holiday sales rose 7.6, a slower pace than the 8.5% increase from a year earlier when shoppers began spending the money they had saved during the early part of the pandemic, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks all kinds of payments including cash and debit cards.

 

Mastercard SpendingPulse had expected a 7.1% increase. The data released Monday excludes the automotive industry and is not adjusted for inflation, which has eased somewhat but remains painfully high.

Biden’s Infantile War on Oil

Nothing spurs activity in a capitalist system like promising to tax the crap out of any profits you might make. This is by design. Biden wants the higher energy prices while putting on a show of disapproval for the idiots who believe him.

Biden has been waging a battle with oil companies over the last few months, but he escalated it in November when he called on them to “act beyond their narrow self-interest,” to “invest in America by increasing production and refining capacity” on behalf of “their consumers, their community and their country.”

 

And if they don’t? Biden warns they’re going to face “a higher tax on their excess profits and … higher restrictions.”

 

The president didn’t elaborate on what those restrictions might be, but promised his administration would work with Congress to evaluate all the available options.

 

“It’s time for these companies to stop war profiteering, meet their responsibilities in this country and give the American people a break,” Biden added.

Thousands of Homeowners Underwater

Not too terribly surprising given that the market peaked in most areas earlier this year. If you bought at the top of the market with a very low down payment, you’re likely underwater.

Surging mortgage rates aren’t just raising the cost of purchasing a new home. An alarming number of recent homebuyers have discovered they already owe more on their property than it’s worth, according to a new analysis.

 

Some 250,000 people who took out a mortgage this year to buy a home are now underwater, meaning they owe more on their loan than the home is worth, Black Knight, a mortgage software provider, found. Another million have less than 10% equity.

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