Boots & Sabers

The blogging will continue until morale improves...

Category: Economy

Giving Up on Work

This is a huge issue.

While the U.S. labor market remains incredibly tight — with the economy adding another 263,000 jobs in November — around 7 million “prime age” men between the ages of 25 and 54 are reportedly sitting it out.

 

[…]

 

The Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank also found that 25% of prime age Americans aren’t currently working — and while some say they’re looking for jobs, but can’t find any, others are actively choosing not to join the job hunt.

 

[…]

 

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce surveyed Americans who lost their jobs during the pandemic and about a quarter said federal aid incentivized them to not actively look for work, while about half aren’t willing to take jobs that don’t offer the option of remote work. Over a third of younger respondents said they were focusing on learning new skills and prioritizing their personal growth before re-entering the labor force.

 

[…]

 

College-educated women are now participating in the labor force at the same rate they were before the pandemic, while the share of college-educated men working or actively looking for work has lessened.

We need to take a much harder stance on taxpayer support for people who won’t work. They won’t go back to work until they have to. Make them have to. I get it. Sometimes work sucks. But those of us who work should not have to pay for lazy asses to lounge around smoking dope and playing Xbox.

Housing Prices Decline

Given that housing prices have gone up about 40% in just two years, there could be a lot more correction.

This latest Case-Shiller report—which found a 2.2% price decline in U.S. homes since June—means we’ve moved into the second biggest home price correction of the post-World War II era. On paper, it’s tied with the 2.2% drop between May 1990 and April 1991, however, given that the index is a three-month average, we know the October numbers will surpass that mark. That said, it’s still far below the 26% peak-to-trough decline that occurred between 2007 and 2012.

 

How can this 2.2% drop already qualify as the second biggest correction of the post-World War II era? It boils down to the fact that, historically speaking, home prices on a national basis have been fairly sticky. Sellers resist going below market comps unless economics forces their hand.

 

“I think that the religion people had from 1946 to 2008, that housing prices always go up, is dead. My parents believed that it was literally inconceivable for [home] prices to go down,” Glen Kelman recently told Fortune. The ensuing 2008 housing crash broke that “religion” and taught buyers and sellers alike, he said, that home prices can indeed fall. “So folks respond [now] to that [correction] with almost PTSD, and they pull back much more quickly.”

The Sad Demise of Sears

Leadership, or the lack thereof, makes a difference.

It has been a slow, quiet death for an iconic chain, whose groundbreaking catalog and anchor position at many malls nationwide once made Sears both the Amazon (AMZN) and the Walmart of its day.

When Sears and Kmart merged in 2005, they counted 3,500 US stores between them and more than 300,000 employees. But both brands were already in a downward spiral. After the merger the company concentrated on selling off its more attractive real estate and buying back stock in an effort to prop up its declining share price, rather than investing in modernizing stores to make them competitive.

By 2018 the company had filed for bankruptcy. Eddie Lampert, the hedge fund operator who had engineered the disastrous Kmart merger and served as the holding company’s CEO, bought the remains of the business out of bankruptcy in early 2019. He had promised to turn things around after it had shed much of its debt, unprofitable stores and less attractive leases.

The company that emerged from bankruptcy in early 2019 — with the overly optimistic name Transformco — owned 223 Sears and 202 Kmart stores nationwide. But less than four years later, it is barely on life support, as the miniscule brick-and-mortar footprint and lack of shoppers demonstrates.

Return surplus to the taxpayers

Sometimes I feel like I’m spitting into the wind, but I’ll keep trying. My column for the Washington County Daily News is online and in print. Here’s a part:

With the state’s coffers overflowing, every hog is at the trough jostling for position and every politician is eyeing their favorite one to fatten. There will be no shortage of requests, demands, justifications, and admonitions from advocates to spend every dollar of the surplus and more. Instead, the Legislature should give it, and more, back to the beleaguered taxpayers.

 

First, let us dig into the anatomy of the forecasted surplus. According to the 62-page DOA report, the state entered the budget with a $2.52 billion balance, added $1.78 billion to the balance in first fiscal year of the budget, and projects to add an additional $2.276 billion to it by the end of this fiscal year for a total biennial budget surplus of $6.576 billion. This is based on the current economic outlook and current tax policies. The reason for the surplus is relatively straightforward. The state spent every dollar it appropriated (actually, a little more), but it collected far more in taxes than it needed. For example, in FY22 which ended on June 30th of this year, the state collected $534 million more in income taxes than lawmakers said they needed in the budget. It collected $338 million more in sales taxes and $1.05 billion more in corporate taxes than it needed.

 

Why? The primary reason is inflation. While the underlying economy is struggling, the price of everything is going up. Incomes are up, corporate taxable profits are up, the price of consumer goods are up, and taxes are based on percentages of those things. The budget did not make any inflationary assumptions when it was created. Inflation has averaged 7.4% since the beginning of this budget in July of 2021. If the projected surplus is realized, it will be due to the state collecting about 10.6% more in taxes than it budgeted.

 

The assumptions used to forecast the surplus are telling, and troubling. The DOA uses economic projections from a single source — IHS Markit. It is concerning that in such tumultuous economic times that the DOA would rely on a single source. They forecast that the nation will have a mild recession in 2023 with a 0.2% decline in GDP before returning sluggish growth in 2024. It also forecasts that inflation will decline to 3% versus prior year by the end of 2023.

 

I hope they are right because those are relatively optimistic projections compared to many other sources. But it reminds us that a forecast is just an educated guess, and we should not spend money that we do not have.

 

The data also shows that while inflation is also pushing up wages, the buying power of those wages are not keeping up. According to the data in the DOA report, personal income rose by 7.4% in 2021 (inflated by COVID bailouts) and 2.3% in 2022. That compares to annualized inflation of 7.1% in 2021 and 7.75% year-to-date in 2022 according to the Federal Reserve. Every dollar of wage increases is being consumed by inflation and then some. Wisconsinites’ expenses are increasing at a far faster rate than their wages.

 

Under normal circumstances, it is immoral for the government to overtax the people and then use that as an excuse to increase spending. With a suspect economic forecast and the buying power of Wisconsinites being eaten away by inflation, it would be unconscionable for our elected leaders to do anything other than to return the surplus to the people who paid it with a sheepish, “ope.”

Layoffs in Tech Sector Continue

It’s rather a small pullback for Amazon, but on top of a lot of other companies in this sector.

Amazon is planning to lay off approximately 10,000 employees in corporate and technology roles beginning this week, according to a report from The New York Times. Separately, The Wall Street Journal also cited a source saying the company plans to lay off thousands of employees.

 

Shares of Amazon closed down about 2% on Monday.

The cuts would be the largest in the company’s history and would primarily impact Amazon’s devices organization, retail division and human resources, according to the report. The reported layoffs would represent less than 1% of Amazon’s global workforce and 3% of its corporate employees.

U.S. Facing Diesel Shortage

This ripples across the entire supply chain.

The U.S. is facing a diesel crunch just as demand is surging ahead of winter — with only 25 days of supply left, according to the Energy Information Administration.

 

National Economic Council Director Brian Deese told Bloomberg TV that diesel inventories are “unacceptably low” and “all options are on the table” to bolster supply and reduce prices.

 

However, even as the stockpiles are being drained, the Biden administration seems to be left with very few sustainable options for long-term relief.

Economy On a Bad Path

One guy’s opinion. I’m investing in brass and cordite.

In a letter to clients, Elliott said that while investors look for further easing of financial conditions with a Fed pivot, only a severe recession can cut inflation.

 

Elliott, founded by Paul Singer, says the “world is on the path to hyperinflation, which is the direct route to global societal collapse and civil or international strife. It is not baked, but that is the path that we are treading.”

 

“Investors should not assume that they have ‘seen everything’ on account of experiencing the 1973 to 1974 bear market and oil embargo, the 1987 crash, the dot-com crash, or the 2007 to 2008 GFC,” the fund said.

Winning the election is just the start

Here is my full column that ran in the Washington County Daily News last week:

The outcomes of elections are always uncertain and replete with surprises, but it is looking more and more like the Republicans are going to do very well next week. If that should come to pass, I fervently hope that the Republicans govern boldly. Winning elections is the goal of politicians. Leaders act to use the power loaned to them by the voters to solve problems for the betterment of our state and nation, and boy, do we have some real problems.

 

The biggest problem facing our nation right now is inflation. There are many other problems, but runaway inflation kills nations. America is not invulnerable to the whirlwind economic forces that inflation unleashes that have obliterated a hundred nations before us.

 

Simply put, inflation happens when there is too much money in the economy chasing too few goods. Prices naturally rise and our dollar buys less than it did yesterday. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the core inflation rate was 8.2% in September and has been in that range since last year.

 

The core inflation rate is misleading because it assumes a basket of goods that is not meaningful to everyone. Inflation hits different goods unevenly. In that same September report, it showed that the price of food is up 91.4%, utilities are up 33.1%, and health insurance is up 28.2%. For people who eat and heat, inflation is hitting much harder than 8.2%.

 

The Federal Reserve has been trying to squeeze money out of the economy by increasing interest rates, but Fed actions are blunted in an era when the federal debt is 125% of our nation’s gross domestic product, according to the Congressional Budget Office, and federal government policies are swamping the country with cash. There has been a structural change in our economy where the levers of inflation have shifted to the federal government’s policies and the central bank is relegated to being an interested bystander. Our nation-killing inflation is a policy choice. If we want different results, we will need to make different policy choices. The federal government must dramatically reduce spending to get inflation under control. Reducing federal spending is the surest way to protect Americans’ wealth from the wildfire of inflation.

 

Should Sen. Ron Johnson be reelected, I hope he will use whatever power he has as one of a hundred senators in a bicameral legislature to oppose new spending and pull back existing spending. Lest we become Venezuela or Zimbabwe, getting control of inflation must be our top national priority.

 

At the state level, Wisconsin’s biggest problem is the deplorable state of our government education system. Despite lavish spending averaging over $16,000 per child per year (an increase of 19% in just five years), our kids are learning less than ever. Test scores have plummeted to the point that barely a third of Wisconsin’s kids can read, write, or do math at grade level.

 

Our government education system is not just an embarrassment, it is a generational brutality committed on our own children. We are condemning a generation of Wisconsinites to be less educated, less capable, and more ignorant than we are. We are robbing them of their potential and a lifetime of opportunities. Our state government schools’ failure to provide our kids with even a mediocre education – much less a good education – is a cruelty for which our kids will rightfully condemn us.

 

We are well past a time when tweaks and nudges will fix the problems with our government education infrastructure. It needs substantive systemic changes at all levels.

 

Wisconsin’s Democrats are the party of perpetuating failure. Last weekend, they even held a rally with President Obama at a Milwaukee high school where zero percent of the kids can do math or science at grade level according to the state ASPIRE exam. The only “solution” that Democrats champion for failing government education is to spend more money on doing the same thing. Their policy choices are about perpetuating and funding a solid Democratic voting bloc irrespective of the quality of the education our kids are getting.

 

Should Tim Michels be our next governor, it is imperative that he immediately tackle the task of fixing our government education system with meaningful changes like universal school choice, outcome-oriented funding, and even privatization. It will be hard and will spark the same kind of radical protests that we saw from government school employees when Gov. Scott Walker signed Act 10. Our kids and their futures are worth enduring whatever the entitled defenders of the status quo might do.

 

Elections matter. Good governance matters more. Our nation and state have real problems that need real leadership.

Winning the election is just the start

My column for the Washington County Daily News is online and in print. Here’s a part:

The outcomes of elections are always uncertain and replete with surprises, but it is looking more and more like the Republicans are going to do very well next week. If that should come to pass, I fervently hope that the Republicans govern boldly. Winning elections is the goal of politicians. Leaders act to use the power loaned to them by the voters to solve problems for the betterment of our state and nation, and boy, do we have some real problems.

 

The biggest problem facing our nation right now is inflation. There are many other problems, but runaway inflation kills nations. America is not invulnerable to the whirlwind economic forces that inflation unleashes that have obliterated a hundred nations before us.

 

[…]

 

At the state level, Wisconsin’s biggest problem is the deplorable state of our government education system. Despite lavish spending averaging over $16,000 per child per year (an increase of 19% in just five years), our kids are learning less than ever. Test scores have plummeted to the point that barely a third of Wisconsin’s kids can read, write, or do math at grade level.

 

Our government education system is not just an embarrassment, it is a generational brutality committed on our own children. We are condemning a generation of Wisconsinites to be less educated, less capable, and more ignorant than we are. We are robbing them of their potential and a lifetime of opportunities. Our state government schools’ failure to provide our kids with even a mediocre education – much less a good education – is a cruelty for which our kids will rightfully condemn us.

Housing Sector Faces Sharp Downturn

Ouch.

U.S. homebuilders were a major beneficiary of the Covid economy. Record low interest rates, combined with surging demand from consumers looking for more living space, caused a run on housing unlike most had ever seen before. Home prices surged over 40% in just two years, and homebuilders couldn’t meet the orders fast enough. They even slowed sales just to keep pace. All of that is over.

 

Housing starts for single-family homes dropped nearly 19% year over year in September, according to the U.S. Census. Building permits, which are an indicator of future construction, fell 17%. PulteGroup, one of the nation’s largest homebuilders, reported its cancelation rate jumped from 15% in the second quarter of this year to 24% in the third.

 

The public homebuilders that have reported earnings so far showed surprisingly strong results, but that is because much of it is based on a backlog of homes that went under contract last spring. That was before mortgage rates crossed 6% and then 7%.

 

Now builders are preparing for what’s coming next. Myers said that his company’s balance sheet is incredibly strong right now, thanks to a backlog of homes sold at high prices, but he predicted that the market will be “ugly” by the start of next year.

“It is definitely a hard landing for housing,” he said. “Any hope of a soft landing really evaporated last spring, when it became so clear that our customers who are accustomed to such low mortgage rates just were going to go on strike.”

Musk Carries Sink into Twitter HQ

What a goof. Presumably this is so he will have it to throw out when the deal closes.

With just a few more days left to complete his acquisition of Twitter and stave off a new court date, billionaire Elon Musk walked into the company’s San Francisco office on Wednesday with what appeared to be a porcelain bathroom sink in his hands.

 

“Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!” the Tesla and SpaceX CEO tweeted with a video of his entrance.

A person at the company confirmed to CNBC that Elon was visiting today, and noted that there is some internal concern about what will happen to people on foreign-worker visas. This person, who declined to be named discussing internal matters, said that employees are trying to keep working despite all the attention being paid to the deal, and despite reports that Musk could gut the place with massive layoffs. Some employees say they feel like if he buys it, he can “burn it all down if he wants to.”

Yes. Yes he will. He will own the company and can do what he wants with it. I’m not a fan of everything Musk does, but I do like that he is one of the increasingly rare business owners who isn’t afraid to act like one.

Chipotle Rethinks Presence in California

Cause. Effect. There are a lot of companies that make decisions like this without the publicity.

Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol says California governor Gavin Newsom’s proposed changes to the minimum wage could cause the restaurant chain to rethink its presence in the state.

 

“We pay well beyond $15 an hour in California. So there is legislation that has the potential to take the hourly wage up to $21, $22 an hour that will put organizations in a place where prices probably have to rise. It’s unfortunate because it also impacts the economic model, and that could impact how many restaurants we open in the future in a state like California which is a shame,” Niccol said at the Yahoo Finance All Markets Summit on Monday.

 

[…]

 

The legislation could pave the way for raising the minimum wage for fast food workers to $22 an hour for employers with more than 26 workers. Currently, the minimum wage stands at $15 in the state.

 

“Equitable? You signed a bill from the hills of Napa that singles out franchise owners with new rules and costs to appease your biggest campaign donors; will raise prices on lower income Californians and will accelerate business leaving the state,” tweeted the CEO of the International Franchise Association Matt Haller to Newsom.

Biden’s Economy Eats Retirement Savings

That’s about right. Remember that people who spent their lives in government, like Biden, do not feel these effects. The notion that one’s retirement nest egg is being broken is an esoteric discussion for them. For the rest of us, it means years and years of more work before we can retire.

Inflation has taken an average of 25 percent – at least $2.1trillion – off the 401Ks of American workers, despite President Joe Biden‘s insistence Sunday that the ‘economy is strong as hell.’

 

The analysis was done by conservative economists Stephen Moore and EJ Antoni, who said that the balance of Americans’ 401ks will ‘ruin your whole day, week and month.’

 

Moore and Antoni note that inflation has been going at 8 percent for the past seven months, despite the White House claiming things were temporary.

 

They argued that over the past 20 months, the average American family has lost nearly $6,000 in ‘purchasing power’ due to the rise in prices over wages.

 

The average American’s 401k plans have lost a colossal $34,000 in value – more than 25 percent of where it was a year ago – to a total of $2.1trillion in losses.

Inflation Fire Still Burning Up American’s Buying Power

Ouch. Please note that all of us who said that the huge spending bills and intentionally misnamed “Inflation Reduction Act” caused this. Sometimes inflation is due to unforeseeable forces. Not this time. This inflation is the result of intentional policy decision.

Prices consumers pay for a wide variety of goods and services rose more than expected in September as inflation pressures continued to weigh on the U.S. economy.

 

The consumer price index for the month increased 0.4% for the month, more than the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a 12-month basis, so-called headline inflation was up 8.2%, off its peak around 9% in June but still hovering near the highest levels since the early 1980s.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI accelerated 0.6% against the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.4% increase. Core inflation was up 6.6% from a year ago.

Europe Looks to Africa for Natural Gas

Having robust, diverse access to energy supplies is critical for a modern economy and society. Are we beginning to remember that?

While Africa’s natural gas reserves are vast and North African countries like Algeria have pipelines already linked to Europe, a lack of infrastructure and security challenges have long stymied producers in other parts of the continent from scaling up exports. Established African producers are cutting deals or reducing energy use so they have more to sell to boost their finances, but some leaders warn that hundreds of millions of Africans lack electricity and supplies are needed at home.

 

Nigeria has Africa’s largest natural gas reserves, said Horatius Egua, a spokesman for the petroleum minister, though it accounts for only 14% of the European Union’s imports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, that comes by ship. Projects face the risk of energy thefts and high costs. Other promising countries like Mozambique have discovered large gas reserves only to see projects delayed by violence from Islamic militants.

 

Europe has been scrambling to secure alternative sources as Moscow has reduced natural gas flows to EU countries, triggering soaring energy prices and growing expectations of a recession. The 27-nation EU, whose energy ministers are meeting this week to discuss a gas price cap, is bracing for the possibility of a complete Russian cutoff but has still managed to fill gas reserves to 90%.

Our nation is too important to trust to Mandela Barnes

I did what the vast majority of Wisconsinites did not do… I watched the debate between Johnson and Barnes. No, I didn’t watch it live. I have a life at 7 pm on a Friday evening. Thankfully, it can be found in full on Youtube. Here is a preview of my column from the Washington County Daily News today.

Incumbent U.S. Senator Ron Johnson and challenger Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes met last week for their one and only debate before the election to see who should represent Wisconsin in the U.S. Senate for the next six years. The debate was hosted by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association which lined up the usual panel of Leftist questioners to ask questions from the Left’s perspective while actively avoiding issues that favor the Right.

 

How, for instance, one could ask questions for an hour of candidates for the U.S. Senate without mentioning inflation, Ukraine, our $31 trillion national debt, or the nation’s open border policy — all issues that will be discussed in the Senate — is journalistic malpractice. As the only debate held, it was a poor showing.

 

[…]

 

When asked about Milwaukee’s horrific rise in violent crime under Democratic leadership, Barnes’ answer was to spend more tax money on schools and somehow create jobs (he did not say how this would happen). He has long been a champion of defunding the police and rooted for anti-police rioters from the safety of his Twitter account.

 

Barnes has this relationship exactly backward. It is the violent crime that drives families and jobs out of communities. They will not come back until the crime is under control and the only way a civilized society has ever accomplished that is with a professional and effective police force. Barnes’ policies would lead to more crime, fewer jobs and another generation lost to crime and poverty.

 

While Barnes is advocating for cutting police funding, eliminating cash bail, and emptying our prisons of violent criminals, he is also pushing for the suppression of citizens to keep and bear arms. During the debate, Barnes lamented that, “the ATF doesn’t even have searchable databases right now because of the law,” supported universal background checks, and pushed for red flag laws.

 

Let us put those policy positions together. Barnes is advocating for a federal government that tracks every single gun purchase, keeps a database of who owns what guns, and has the power to strip someone of their 2nd Amendment rights without due process if a government official thinks someone might be a threat someday. While violent crooks run free in Barnes’ America, law-abiding citizens might be stripped of their civil rights if they displease a government official.

 

When asked about President Biden’s unconstitutional effort to forgive student loans, Barnes said, “absolutely it’s fair.”

CEO Warns of Recession

I don’t know what’s going on in Mr. Dimon’s neighborhood, buy we’re already in a recession out here in flyover country.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday warned that a “very, very serious” mix of headwinds was likely to tip both the U.S. and global economy into recession by the middle of next year.

 

[…]

 

Among the indicators ringing alarm bells, Dimon cited the impact of runaway inflation, interest rates going up more than expected, the unknown effects of quantitative tightening and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

 

[…]

 

Asked for his views on the outlook for the S&P 500, Dimon said the benchmark could yet fall by “another easy 20%” from current levels, adding that “the next 20% would be much more painful than the first.”

High Earning Young Professionals Flee NY and CA for TX and FL

Not shocking

survey conducted by SmartAsset tracked the movement of so-called “rich young professionals,” which it described as anyone under 35 earning an adjusted gross income of at least $100,000.

SmartAsset determined the inflow and outflow of rich young professionals in all 50 states and the District of Columbia by using Internal Revenue Service data to compare tax returns from 2019 and 2020.

 

It seems young professionals are most eager to leave New York. With a net outflow of 15,788, this state had the highest number of individuals leaving by a significant margin. With a net outflow of 7,960, California also appears to be losing allure for rich young professionals.

This survey measured raw numbers, so of course the states with large populations float to the top. But the lessons should be heeded by Wisconsin. High-earning young professionals are gold for a state economy and culture. Wisconsin should work to attract them. Wisconsin has some wonderful natural attractions, but the tax burden and winters work against it. Wisconsin can’t do anything about the winters, but they can do something about the tax burden.

End the income tax. Reform K-12 education so that young professionals want to educate their kids here. Get crime under control. The recipe is easy, but Wisconsin needs to get cooking.

Fish Oil News

These stories are related:

OPEC and non-OPEC allies, a group often referred to as OPEC+, decided at their first face-to-face gathering in Vienna since 2020 to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day from November.

And

Underfishing, which has become common in the U.S., occurs when fish are harvested at a rate lower than would produce maximum sustainable yield.

 

Hilborn said as much as 20 to 30% of potential yield is lost by cautious management.

 

[…]

 

America imports anywhere from 70% to 85% of its seafood, according to NOAA. In 2020, the U.S. imported over 6 billion pounds of seafood worth over $21 billion, making for a national seafood trade deficit of $17 billion.

 

Some supply chains are murky. Many countries don’t have data on trends and stocks because they don’t have management systems in place, according to the FAO.

 

“Everything we do know suggests that, on average, they are fishing too hard,” Hilborn said, adding that those dominant countries include China, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, India.”

 

The U.S. imported $2.4 billion worth of seafood from illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing in 2019, accounting for about 11% of total U.S. seafood imports, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.

In both cases, the United States could choose to fish and drill more to create American jobs, lower prices, and increase GDP. In both cases, the United States has made policy choices to buy more critical resources from corrupt, criminal, totalitarian regimes. In doing so, not only have we chosen to harm ourselves in order to send pallets of cash to these countries that hate us, but we are also encouraging fishing and drilling practices that are more destructive to the environment than if we did it ourselves.

So… enjoy your expensive fish from… wherever… and your $6/gallon gas. These are the result of intentional policy decisions by politicians we elected.

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