Boots & Sabers

The blogging will continue until morale improves...

Category: Economy

Averagen Gas Prices Surge to $5.10 per Gallon

But… but… Putin or something.

CAMARILLO, Calif. — The average U.S. price of regular-grade gasoline spiked 39 cents over the past three weeks to $5.10 per gallon.

 

Industry analyst Trilby Lundberg of the Lundberg Survey said Sunday that the price jump comes amid higher crude oil costs and tight gasoline supplies.

 

The average price at the pump is $1.97 higher than it was one year ago.

When can we all admit that Democrats’ policies are crushing our economy? The only real question left is whether their policies are rooted in malice or stupidity.

Inflation Continues to Worsen

Our economy is collapsing and families are hurting as the politicians and media put on a theater production in D.C.

Inflation accelerated further in May, with prices rising 8.6% from a year ago for the fastest increase since December 1981, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

 

The consumer price index, a wide-ranging measure of goods and services prices, increased even more than the 8.3% Dow Jones estimate. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI was up 6%, slightly higher than the 5.9% estimate.

On a monthly basis, headline CPI was up 1% while core rose 0.6%, compared to respective estimates of 0.7% and 0.5%.

 

Surging shelter, gasoline and food prices all contributed to the increase.

 

Energy prices broadly rose 3.9% from a month ago, bringing the annual gain to 34.6%. Within the category, fuel oil posted a 16.9% monthly gain, pushing the 12-month surge to 106.7%.

 

Shelter costs, which account for about a one-third weighting on the CPI, rose 0.6% for the month and now are 5.5% higher from a year ago.

 

Finally, food costs climbed another 1.2% in May, bringing the year-over-year gain to 10.1%.

Musk’s Companies Go Back to the Office

I, for one, appreciate this.

Tesla boss Elon Musk has ordered staff to return to the office full-time, declaring that working remotely is no longer acceptable.

 

The new policy was shared in emails that were leaked to social media.

 

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on the messages, one of which appeared to be addressed to executives.

 

People who are unwilling to abide by the new rules can “pretend to work somewhere else” Mr Musk said on Twitter, when asked about the policy.

 

“Everyone at Tesla is required to spend a minimum of 40 hours in the office per week,” he wrote in one of the emails. “If you don’t show up, we will assume you have resigned.”

Don’t get me wrong.. I am not making a statement on the policy. I have been a remote worker for 15+ years and don’t think I would ever go back to work in an office unless 1) I had to, or 2) they paid me a LOT of money. I think remote workers can be very effective, but it is not appropriate for all job roles. It is also not appropriate for all people. It takes some self-discipline.

It is also perfectly acceptable for a company to want workers in the office for the inherent benefits the company gets in terms of culture and collaboration. Musk believes that working in an office is better for his business’ outcomes and is not going to coddle employees who won’t accept that condition of employment. Good for him. And if that stance costs him great employees, then that’s a consequence he will have to manage. We need to get back to having workplaces that are mutually beneficial for all parties. If it isn’t working for one of the parties, then they are free to make adult decisions about their future.

Home Sales Down in SE Wisconsin

Ignore the positive talk from the Realtors. 3.4% decrease in inventory with a 8.2% decrease in sales means that the housing market is slowing. High prices and rising mortgage costs are having an impact and the market is correcting. It needs to happen.

The data released Wednesday by the GMAR says that sales of homes decreased by 8.2% in April compared to April 2021. All four metro Milwaukee counties were hit with Washington County seeing the most significant decrease of 28.3% in April, compared to one year prior. Waukesha County had a decline of 11.9%, followed by Ozaukee County at 11.5%. Of the four counties, Ozaukee County had the smallest decline at 2.8%.

“But no one should panic, because looking at the first four months of the year there were 5,658 units sold, the second most on record. Second only to 2021’s 5,730,” reads the report by Ruzicka. “In fact, much of 2022 will probably appear to be down compared to last year, because 2021 was an exceptionally wild year for residential real estate.”

What has been a major concern for the past few years is the number of home listings. Again, the first period of 2022 showed fewer properties listed for sale. GMAR reported that there were 7,342 listings during the first four months of 2022, which is a 3.4% decrease compared to the first quarter of 2021.

Inflation Up. Wages Down.

Let’s go Brandon. I would ask, what “economic expansion?” Did CNBC not see that the economy contracted in Q1?

Inflation rose again in April, continuing a climb that has pushed consumers to the brink and is threatening the economic expansion, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

 

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of prices for goods and services, increased 8.3% from a year ago, higher than the Dow Jones estimate for an 8.1% gain. That represented a slight ease from March’s peak but was still close to the highest level since the summer of 1982.

Removing volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI still rose 6.2%, against expectations for a 6% gain, clouding hopes that inflation had peaked in March.

 

The month-over-month gains also were higher than expectations — 0.3% on headline CPI versus the 0.2% estimate and a 0.6% increase for core, against the outlook for a 0.4% gain.

 

The price gains also meant that workers continued to lose ground. Real wages adjusted for inflation decreased 0.1% on the month despite a nominal increase of 0.3% in average hourly earnings. Over the past year, real earnings have

West Bend Girls Soccer Teams Merge Due to Low Participation

Declining enrolment continues apace in the West Bend School District. Do they still have all of those same buildings as when they had 1,000 more kids? (hint: yes)

Despite being rivals in the past, West Bend East and West girls soccer combined this spring to form one co-op team.

 

This year the participation from both schools was low enough that the soccer teams could combine without having high numbers. There is precedent for such a move, as the girls golf team, girls swim and dive, boys swim and dive and snowboarding teams already function as co-ops.

 

“In fact, we were at the point where we would only be able to field a varsity team for each school,” said Erin Felber, the West athletic director. “This is not conducive to helping build a program and it isn’t safe for student-athletes to potentially have to play at the varsity level when they are not ready.”

Returning to the Office is Racist

FYI

A group of Apple employees have accused the big-tech giant of racism over its push for corporate workers to return to the office, saying that the shift back to an in-person model will make the company ‘younger, whiter, [and] more male-dominated.’

 

The employees, organized under the newly-formed group Apple Together, petitioned the company on Friday in an open letter after CEO Tim Cook told staffers that they would need to work from the office one day a week starting on April 11, two days per week after three weeks, and three days per week after May 23.

 

They wrote that the decision to bring employees back to the office was not motivated by a ‘need to commune in person,’ as Cook wrote in his letter to staff, but rather was driven by the company’s ‘fear of the future of work, fear of worker autonomy [and] fear of losing control.’

 

Economy Contracts

Oof.

Gross domestic product unexpectedly declined at a 1.4% annualized pace in the first quarter, marking an abrupt reversal for an economy coming off its best performance since 1984, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

 

The negative growth rate missed even the subdued Dow Jones estimate of a 1% gain for the quarter. GDP measures the output of goods and services in the U.S. for the three-month period.

Elections have consequences.

Evers Uses Veto to Maintain Arbitrary Authority to Close Businesses

Yup.

MADISON, April 14, 2022 – Today, NFIB is expressing frustration with legislation that would prevent the government from arbitrarily mandating business closures during an emergency has been vetoed by Governor Tony Evers.

 

Assembly Bill 912 would have required businesses be treated equally during an emergency declaration by their government.

 

Bill G. Smith, State Director of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) in Wisconsin, the state’s leading small business organization, said Wisconsin’s small business community is deeply disappointed with the Governor’s decision to veto this important legislation.

 

“The Governor has extraordinary discretion to implement and administer economic relief programs during an emergency,” said Smith, “this legislation did not interfere with the Governor’s ability to target resources or implement programs that would benefit small business during an emergency.”

 

“Unfortunately, as a result of this veto, the government will continue to use its power to choose winners and losers by closing down local small businesses during an emergency, while allowing big box corporate retail establishments to remain open and fully operational,” said Smith.

Inflation Soars Under Biden

Hey, but no mean tweets.

 

 

[…]

 

The government’s report also showed that inflation rose 1.2% from February to March, up from a 0.8% increase from January to February.

 

[…]

 

According to AAA, the average price of a gallon of gasoline — $4.10 — is up 43% from a year ago, though it has fallen back in the past couple of weeks.

Teaching the Three R’s: Racism, Racism, Racism

But parents don’t deserve to know what their kids are being taught.

In February, DPI brought in Charlene Carruthers for its equity webinar series to talk about social transformation. Carruthers is a community organizer and PhD student at Northwestern University who specializes in “interrogating historical conjunctures of Black freedom-making post-emancipation and decolonial revolution, Black governance, Black feminist and queer theory,” according to her website.

 

“We’re going up against 300 years plus, at least of it being a formal state, of white supremacy, of patriarchy and of capitalism,” she told the teachers.

 

That’s also the core principle of CRT, which describes all aspects of American history and society within that framework. Although Carruthers’ life is dedicated to that work, she claims she’s not sure what people mean when they refer to CRT.

 

“I’m a black studies scholar, I cannot tell- I think could tell you what critical race theory is, and I can tell you for sure it is not the most radical thing to come out… ha! Wait until you hear what we really think, what we really believe in!”

 

DPI’s in-house education consultant Chrissy Thuli was nodding and laughing as Carruthers made that admission.

 

Carruthers is a vocal advocate of the defund the police movement. She referenced Freedom Inc’s work in Madison for the #PoliceFreeSchools campaign. Freedom Inc. played a key leadership role during the riots that destroyed downtown Madison in 2020.

U.S. Inflation Rate Only Half of Russia’s

We’re closing in fast.

On Wednesday, Russia’s economic ministry said annual inflation had jumped 14.5% in the week ending 18 March – the highest rate since late 2015.

The Federal State Statistics Service said the cost of sugar rose by as much as 37.1% in certain regions of the country and increased by an average 14%.

 

Sugar, which is commonly used to preserve food or make liquor, was the biggest gainer in the week, the government agency found.

The price of onions was the second biggest riser over the week, up 13.7% nationwide and 40.4% in some areas. Meanwhile, nappies were 4.4% more expensivePrices for black tea rose 4% and toilet paper increased by 3%.

The end of globalization?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ended globalization as we know it, says the head of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told shareholders in a letter on Thursday that Russia’s “decoupling from the global economy” following its assault on Ukraine has caused governments and companies to examine their reliance on other nations.

“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to the globalization we have experienced over the last three decades,” Fink wrote.

The CEO, whose company manages $10 trillion in assets, predicted that Russia’s isolation will “prompt companies and governments worldwide to reevaluate their dependencies and reanalyze their manufacturing and assembly footprints.”

But some countries could benefit from focusing on building up their domestic industries, as companies onshore or “nearshore” their operations, he said.

Fink said that the coronavirus pandemic had already set these wheels in motion.

Businesses that were more self-reliant with full operations incapsulated in each country had an easier time navigating the pandemic and the impact of the war. Other companies see it.

Ford to Ship Incomplete Vehicles

At least it will get some vehicles into the market.

Ford (F) will begin shipping Explorer SUVs without all of its chips to address the tight inventory of vehicles available for sale at dealerships.
The automaker disclosed this weekend that it would build Explorers without rear-seat controls for the air conditioner and heat. The driver and front-seat passenger will still be able to adjust climate controls for backseat passengers — but people in the back won’t be able to change the temperature themselves.
“We’re doing this as a way to get our customers their vehicles sooner,” said Ford spokesperson Said Deep.
[…]
Ford is not the only automaker shipping vehicles without all the features they were designed to include.
Last year General Motors was forced to temporarily stop offering several features, including a fuel management module designed to improve mileage in the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups by about one mile per gallon. GM also stopped offering a stop-start feature on some of its heavy-duty pickups.

Average Gas Prices Top $4 for First Time in a Decade

Hmmm… who was the president in 2011? There might be policy choices driving this. Might…

As of Sunday afternoon, the national average of a regular gallon of gas is $4.009, according to the American Automobile Association. That’s up 8 cents from Saturday and up 40 cents from last week. The national average also comes a day earlier than what analysts expected.

[…]

The average cost is also the highest since May 2011, when the average was $4.96, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Wisconsin Sees Rapid Decline In Union Membership

When given a choice, the majority of people chose to not join a union.

New data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show nearly all states have seen a decline in the concentration of their workforce that is unionized over the last 20 years, but none more so than Wisconsin.

 

In 2000, 17.8% of all employed Wisconsinites were members of a union – the 10th-highest concentration in the country. By 2021, that number fell to just 7.9%, putting Wisconsin at 28th among states and below the national average of 10.3%. The 9.9 percentage point drop since 2000 for Wisconsin was the largest nationwide by nearly three percentage points, and substantially more than the national drop of 3.1 percentage points (see Figure 1).

 

The 55.6% decline in the rate of union membership in Wisconsin over the same time period ranked second-highest in the country, behind only South Carolina

Inflation Continues to Rage

This is economy killing. If it goes on long enough, it is nation killing.

Consumer prices surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.

 

The consumer price index for January, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared with a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

That compared with Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982.

America the beautiful

Here is my full column that ran in the Washington County Daily News earlier this week.

“Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn’t do than the ones you did. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor.” That quote is often attributed to Mark Twain, who did not say it, but they are wise words, nonetheless.

 

This week marks six months since my wife and I threw off our boat’s bowlines as we spend a year circumnavigating the eastern half of the nation on the Great Loop. As I sit in the Keys at the southernmost point on our journey having sailed almost 2,800 miles from our beautiful home port of Port Washington, I’ve learned a few things about our country. Perhaps it is more accurate to say that I relearned them.

 

America’s waterways are truly bursting with crosscurrents of people. Rich people in palatial homes, vagabond river rats, heavy industry workers, agricultural workers, fishermen, pleasure boaters, restaurateurs, hoteliers, vacationers, farmers, retirees, immigrants, middle-class folks, and just about every other kind of person finds their way to the water to intermingle.

 

By and large, Americans are nice. They are helpful, generous, welcoming, and kind. They are open with advice and love to share their experiences. Perhaps these wonderful attributes get lost in the news or in the fires of social media exchanges, but they are as real and true as ever. Americans are a good people. Americans are extremely reasonable and full of common sense. On the COVID pandemic, for example, the vast majority of the people we met were taking a sensible approach. If they were in a high-risk group, they were more cautious. Most people were content to let people make their own choices without judgment or concern. We met one couple who were fellow digital nomads who said, “We heard about the pandemic, but chose not to participate.” To each their own. That “live and let live” attitude is prevalent throughout America.

 

Americans are incredibly hardworking and entrepreneurial. We met one man in Mississippi who used to work in corporate America. After finding out that he had severe hypertension in his mid-40s, he quit and started his own business delivering food to marinas. Through word of mouth, he has expended to a wide list of concierge services. He was working 80 hours a week, but healthy, happy, and hiring. America is still the land of opportunity and new beginnings.

 

Americans are proud, and rightfully so. In almost every town from Chicago to Apalachicola, Fla., people are proud of their communities. Visiting the local history museums, seeing the murals, and speaking to locals opens up the full story of America. From rugged pioneers hacking out a home in the wilderness to industrialists creating an industry to the generations of people toiling to make their community better for the next generation, every town has a rich history and a proud heritage. Sure, I love spending time in New York and Chicago too, but give me a Paducah or Everglades City any day.

 

It is also clear that America’s politicians are completely out of touch with actual Americans. In speaking with hundreds of Americans from all walks of life in dozens of towns of all sizes, people are not talking about the same things as the politicians. People are not talking about racial strife. Most Americans get along just fine with their neighbors irrespective of race or ethnicity. People are not talking about Ukraine. They are talking about COVID a bit but have mostly moved on. Nobody cares about global warming, but they care about keeping their environment clean.

 

What Americans do care about are the things that they have always cared about — the things that are impacting their daily lives. The most common concern on people’s mind were rising prices. One couple we met watched as the price of diesel went up between the time they started pumping and when they finished. They had to pay the higher price. The prices for groceries, fuel, cars, and food are on everyone’s minds.

 

Americans are talking about their kids in schools and how hard the lockdowns, virtual learning, and masking has been on their children and their families. They are talking about crime, but mostly in the cities. Small-town Americans still respect and support their police. Americans are talking about government waste and fraud. They know about Washington spending trillions of dollars to help, but very little of it has actually made a difference in their lives.

 

Americans are worried that their culture is being taken away from them. They are joking about wokeism because it is so foreign to their experience, but worried that the cultural elites will force it on them. Americans are fiercely proud of being Americans, but anxious that they aren’t allowed to be proud anymore.

 

When Donald Trump ran for office with his “Make America Great Again” slogan, I didn’t get it then. I get it now even if I don’t support him running again. He was tuned into something that the rest of our politicians were not. Americans feel like their political representatives are too far removed from the real issues that impact Americans and they are absolutely sick and tired of it. Unless our elected representatives figure out how to reconnect with the people they serve, we will continue to whipsaw between extremes as Americans cry out for someone to listen to them.

High inflation lights fuse of government taxing and spending time bomb

Here is my full column that ran earlier in the week in the Washington County Daily News 

The U.S. Consumer Price Index, the key measurement for inflation, jumped to 7% in December marking the highest inflation rate we have seen since “Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan” was released in theaters. It is only going to get worse. There is no sign of inflation abating any time soon and it has lit a fuse that will ignite massive increase in taxes and spending.

 

The CPI measures a basket of goods that is designed to be representative of an average American’s expenses. While overall expenses have gone up 7%, the distribution is even more troubling. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the big drivers are protein foods (12.5%), gasoline (49.6%), fuel oil (41%), natural gas (24.1%), used cars and trucks (37.3%), and new vehicles (11.8%). The extreme price increases in the energy sector are drastically increasing transportation costs and will further ripple through the economy as businesses try to get goods to consumers.

 

Even worse, the Producer Price Index, which measures the change in prices from the perspective of the sellers, rose faster than CPI at 9.7% in 2021. That is the largest calendar year increase since this metric was first calculated in 2010. With the PPI higher than the CPI, it indicates that businesses are absorbing some of the inflation and not passing all of it along to consumers… yet. As businesses realign their consumer prices with their costs, we can expect to see the CPI continue to rise.

 

All of this has a direct impact on every Wisconsinite as the costs of groceries, fuel, home-heating, and other essentials continue to increase. Buckle up, because it is going to get worse as those inflation numbers hit government budgets.

 

Wisconsin has always been a high tax state, but over the years, Republicans have put a few safeguards in place by capping increases to the rate of inflation. That was sensible when we had inflation of 2% or 3%. As inflation moves to 7% or possible above 10%, the ability of Wisconsinites to afford their government will be severely strained.

 

For example, in 2011, the Republicans implemented Act 10, which did a number of things including restricting public employee unions to being able to only negotiate wages up to the rate of inflation. In practice, that meant that most public employees have been receiving wage increases at the rate of inflation every year. With employee costs representing 70% or more of most government budgets, that means that 2022 will see significant spending increases for no additional value.

 

Also, Wisconsin caps government school district spending increases to changes in enrollment and inflation. Higher inflation means a much higher spending increase limit for school districts to pay for those increases in employee wages. This will drive a steep increase in property taxes at the same time that the housing prices upon which property taxes are based have gone up 9.5% according to the Wisconsin Realtors Association.

 

While spending and tax increases of 7% or more are looming, the ability for Wisconsinites to afford those increases is not keeping up. According to the BLS, Wisconsin’s wage growth ranks 37th in the nation for the third quarter of 2021, the most recent data available. Wisconsin’s average hourly wage in the private sector increased at a rate of 3.9% — a little more than half the rate of inflation. As inflation is squeezing Wisconsinites’ expenses, government is about to take a bigger slice. For those who are retired or on a fixed income, the bite of government will be even more severe.

 

To make it even worse — sorry, there is no good news here — recall that inflation measurements are a lagging indicator. Government budgets this year will be set based on inflation incurred last year. When inflation does eventually abate or a period of deflation possibly sets in, there is no mechanism to rein in the inflationary spending of government. Those spending increases will be baked into the pie forevermore unless elected leaders are willing to actually cut spending — something that neither Republicans nor Democrats have been willing to do in Wisconsin in my lifetime.

 

The only way to snuff out the fuse is to elect people who are willing to say “no” to increasing spending even in the face of inflation. Wisconsin’s private-sector workers are suffering from President Biden’s inflation. Government employees should not be immunized from inflation at the expense of their private- sector neighbors. It starts right now with the primaries for local government elections and the general election in April. It continues through the November elections. The people we elect in these next two general elections will be the ones making budget decisions at the end of the year.

 

Choose wisely.

Intel Chooses Ohio Instead of Wisconsin for Chip Plant

That’s a shame.

MOUNT PLEASANT — What is billed as the largest microchip factory in the world almost came to Racine County. As with a Foxconn electric-vehicle factory before it, it’s going to Ohio instead.

Intel confirmed Friday plans to spend $20 billion to build two factories northeast of Columbus, that state’s capital, that is to employ 3,000 and to create at least 10,000 auxiliary jobs.

“Ultimately, we hope to establish the largest semiconductor manufacturing site on the planet,” Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger and Senior Vice President Keyvan Esfarjani wrote in a December letter, reviewed by USA Today, to Republican Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine.

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