Boots & Sabers

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Category: Foreign Affairs

US Equities Drop $1 Trillion in Value

by | 2028, 27 Jan 25 | , | 0 Comments

This is a significant development that threatens the future of the US economy.

The race for domination in artificial intelligence was blown wide open on Monday after the launch of a Chinese chatbot wiped $1tn from the leading US tech index, with one investor calling it a “Sputnik moment” for the world’s AI superpowers.

 

Investors punished global tech stocks on Monday after the emergence of DeepSeek, a competitor to OpenAI and its ChatGPT tool, shook faith in the US artificial intelligence boom by appearing to deliver the same performance with fewer resources.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed down 3.1%, with the drop at one point wiping more than $1tn off the index from its closing value of $32.5tn last week, as investors digested the implications of the latest AI model developed by DeepSeek.

The most important aspect of this is to, once again, highlight how we will never take the economic leaps ahead of China that our work and ingenuity deserve until we secure American IP from being stolen. This is a warning shot that China is intent on taking the leadership in the tech sector just as they did in manufacturing.

This also should refocus investment efforts in the US. If the value of a company can be destroyed overnight because China stole their IP, it makes every investment in AI that much riskier.

More U.S. Companies in China Look to Diversify Supply Chain

by | 0827, 23 Jan 25 | , | 1 Comment

China’s grip as being the world’s manufacturer may be starting to slip.

BEIJING — A record share of U.S. companies in China are accelerating their plans to relocate manufacturing or sourcing, according to a business survey released Thursday.

 

About 30% of the respondents considered or started such diversification in 2024, surpassing the prior high of 24% in 2022, according to annual surveys from the American Chamber of Commerce in China.

 

[…]

 

While India and Southeast Asian countries remained the most popular destination for relocating production, the survey showed 18% of the respondents considered relocating to the U.S. in 2024, up from 16% the prior year.

The majority of U.S. companies did not plan to diversify. Just over two-thirds, or 67%, of respondents said they were not considering relocating manufacturing, a 10 percentage point drop from 2023, the survey showed.

 

The latest AmCham China survey covered 368 members from Oct. 21 to Nov. 15. Trump was re-elected U.S. president on Nov. 5.

Ceasefire Near in Gaza

by | 2104, 15 Jan 25 | | 0 Comments

Even though Biden did a victory lap (that press conference was ridiculous), it looks like this deal isn’t quite done yet.

DOHA, Qatar (AP) — Israel and Hamas have agreed to pause the devastating war in the Gaza Strip, mediators announced Wednesday, raising the possibility of winding down the deadliest and most destructive fighting between the bitter enemies.

Israel

The three-phase ceasefire deal promises the release of dozens of hostages held by militants in Gaza and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israel, and to allow hundreds of thousands of people displaced in Gaza to return to what remains of their homes. It would also flood desperately needed humanitarian aid into the territory ravaged by 15 months of war, mediators said.

 

The prime minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said the ceasefire would go into effect Sunday and that its success would depend on Israel and Hamas “acting in good faith in order to ensure that this agreement does not collapse.” He spoke in the Qatari capital of Doha, the site of weeks of painstaking negotiations.

 

U.S. President Joe Biden touted the deal from Washington, saying the ceasefire would stay in place as long as Israel and Hamas remain at the negotiating table over a long-term truce. Biden credited months of “dogged and painstaking American diplomacy” for landing the deal, noting that his administration and President-elect Donald Trump’s team had been “speaking as one” in the latest negotiations.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said late Wednesday that the ceasefire agreement with Hamas was still not complete and final details were being worked out.

 

An Israeli official familiar with the talks who spoke on condition of anonymity said those details center on confirming the list of Palestinian prisoners to be freed. Any agreement must be approved by Netanyahu’s Cabinet.

 

Netanyahu thanked Trump and Biden for “advancing” the ceasefire agreement, but did not explicitly say whether he has accepted it, saying he would issue a formal response only “after the final details of the agreement, which are currently being worked on, are completed.”

Greenland PM Ready to Work with U.S. for Security

by | 1733, 13 Jan 25 | , | 0 Comments

This could be a mutually fruitful partnership.

Greenland wants to work more closely with the US on defence and exploring its mining resources, its prime minister said on Monday.

 

Mute Egede said his government was looking for ways to work with President-elect Donald Trump, who has in recent weeks shown renewed interest in taking control of the territory – without ruling out using military or economic force to do so.

 

Also on Monday, Denmark’s foreign minister said it was ready to work with Greenland to “continue talks” with Trump “to ensure legitimate American interests” in the Arctic.

 

Greenland, a largely autonomous Danish territory, lies on the shortest route from North America to Europe, making it strategically important for the US.

Spain Imposes 100% Tax for Non-EU Home Buyers

by | 1731, 13 Jan 25 | , | 0 Comments

This is something US communities should consider.

Spain is planning to impose a tax of up to 100% on properties bought by non-residents from countries outside the EU, such as the UK.

 

Announcing the move, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said the “unprecedented” measure was necessary to meet the country’s housing emergency.

 

“The West faces a decisive challenge: To not become a society divided into two classes, the rich landlords and poor tenants,” he said.

 

Non-EU residents bought 27,000 properties in Spain in 2023, he told an economic forum in Madrid, “not to live in” but “to make money from them”.

Greenland for the Greenlanders

by | 0602, 10 Jan 25 | , | 0 Comments

Like many, I suspect that Trump’s end goal with Greenland is not so much to make it an American territory, but to spur independence and move it into the American sphere of influence. This would allow America to have more influence and security with this land than sits athwart vital shipping lanes and imbued with tremendous natural resources. Judging by the comments of many of the Greenlanders, it’s time.

The Greenland question is a delicate one for Denmark, whose prime minister officially apologised only recently for spearheading a 1950s social experiment which saw Inuit children removed from their families to be re-educated as “model Danes”.

 

Last week, Greenland’s leader said the territory should free itself from “the shackles of colonialism.”

 

By doing so he tapped into growing nationalist sentiment, fuelled by interest among Greenland’s younger generations in the indigenous culture and history of the Inuit.

 

Most commentators now expect a successful independence referendum in the near future. While for many it would be seen as a victory, it could also usher in a new set of problems, as 60% of Greenland’s economy is dependent on Denmark.

 

An independent Greenland “would need to make choices,” said Karsten Honge. The Green Left MP now fears his preferred option of a new Commonwealth-style pact “based on equality and democracy” is unlikely to come about.

 

[…]

 

Opposition MP Jarlov argues that while there is no point in forcing Greenland to be part of Denmark, “it is very close to being an independent country already”.

 

Its capital Nuuk is self-governed, but relies on Copenhagen for management of currency, foreign relations and defence – as well as substantial subsidies.

 

“Greenland today has more independence than Denmark has from the EU,” Jarlov added. “So I hope they think things through.”

 

As Mette Frederiksen has the awkward task of responding firmly while not offending Greenland or the US, the staunchest rebuttal to Trump’s comments so far has come from outside Denmark.

Saudis Imprison American with Dual Citizenship for Social Media Posts

by | 2031, 7 Jan 25 | | 0 Comments

Before you get bent out of shape about the totalitarian regime imprisoning people for social media posts, remember that the U.K. and other Western “free” countries are doing the same thing.

A retired project manager who immigrated to the U.S. in the 1970s, Almadi was arrested in Saudi Arabia in 2021, when he arrived on a planned two-week visit to see family. Saudi officials confronted him with tweets he had posted over the past several years in the U.S., including one about Khashoggi’s killing and another on the crown prince’s consolidation of power.

 

Almadi was quickly sentenced to more than 19 years in prison on terrorism-related charges stemming from the tweets. Saudi Arabia freed him after more than a year but imposed an exit ban that keeps him from returning to his home in Boca Raton, near Miami.

 

For months after his release, Almadi received menacing phone calls from men his son alleges were agents of the feared intelligence police, whose job it is to root out threats to the kingdom’s rulers. Then, last November, they summoned Almadi to a villa in Riyadh, where he was promised the exit ban would be lifted if he renounced his American citizenship, his son said.

 

Feeling helpless, Almadi signed a document and followed instructions to try to return his American passport to the U.S. Embassy, his son said.

Zelenskyy Calls for US to Impose Pease and for Ukraine to Enter NATO

by | 2036, 5 Jan 25 | , | 0 Comments

No, on both counts. I’m sure that a peace could be enforced by the U.S., but it is neither our obligation nor in our national interest to put American lives and treasure between two belligerent neighbors. Further, there is no upside for NATO or the U.S. to allow Ukraine entry. There was a time when it might have been a good idea, but after Ukraine has been drained of resources, they would just be a taker country without contributing anything but risk to the alliance.

KYIV (Reuters) -Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said security guarantees for Kyiv to end Russia’s war would only be effective if the United States provides them, and that he hoped to meet U.S. President-elect Donald Trump soon after his inauguration.

 

In an interview with U.S. podcaster Lex Fridman published on Sunday, Zelenskiy said Ukrainians were counting on Trump to force Moscow to end its war and that Russia would escalate in Europe if Washington were to quit the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military alliance.

 

Almost three years after Russia’s invasion, the election of Trump, who returns to the White House on Jan. 20, has sparked hope of a diplomatic resolution to stop the war, but also fears in Kyiv that a quick peace could come at a high price.

 

Zelenskiy used the three-hour interview published on YouTube to call for Ukraine’s NATO membership, emphasizing his belief that a ceasefire without security guarantees for Kyiv would merely give Russia time to rearm for a new attack.

Syria to Take Up to Four Years for Elections

by | 2007, 29 Dec 24 | | 2 Comments

Quick prediction… there will never be free elections in Syria under this regime.

Holding new elections in Syria could take up to four years, rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has said in a broadcast interview.

 

This is the first time he has given a timeline for possible elections in Syria since his group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led a rebel offensive that ousted former President Bashar al-Assad.

 

In the interview with Saudi state broadcaster Al Arabiya on Sunday, he said drafting a new constitution could take up to three years.

 

He said it could also be a year before Syrians begin to see significant change and improvements to public services following the overthrow of the Assad regime.

Russia Denies Shooting Down Plane

by | 1850, 26 Dec 24 | | 1 Comment

Well, this wouldn’t be the first commercial airliner that Putin has shot down.

The Russian government has cautioned against promoting “hypotheses” about the cause of the crash of a Russia-bound passenger plane that killed 38 people in Kazakhstan on Wednesday.

 

Some aviation experts suggested that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane had been hit by air defence systems over the Russian republic of Chechnya and pro-government media in Azerbaijan quote officials as saying a Russian missile was responsible.

 

Before it went down near the Kazakh city of Aktau, the plane was diverted across the Caspian Sea, from its destination in Chechnya to western Kazakhstan.

 

Twenty nine of the 67 people on board survived. Azerbaijan held a national day of mourning on Thursday for the victims of the crash.

U.S. Auto Makers Losing in China After Radical Shift to EVs

by | 0748, 17 Dec 24 | , | 1 Comment

When the CCP pushes Chinese people to use EVs, they do so. This is not a story of the success of EVs. It a story of the power of totalitarian government. This is the kind of power that makes America’s environuts envious.

The biggest problem is China’s shift from traditional gasoline-powered cars in recent years to electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids, which now make up a majority of its market. The country had introduced policies and incentives that pushed buyers towards EVs, where they found better cars and better values in the Chinese brands.

“Ten years ago, President Xi Jinping and the Chinese automakers decided: ‘We have been chasing global automakers in internal combustion engine vehicles, and we’re not catching up. We’re going whole hog into electric,’” said Dunne.

Western automakers tried to stay the course with gasoline-powered cars, and for the most part, so did their JV partners. Now those companies — other than Tesla, which has a factory in Shanghai — are trailing far behind in an effort to keep up with lower priced EVs and hybrids from Chinese automakers, such as BYD.

It was a massive miscalculation by Western automakers, said Bill Russo, head of Shanghai-based investment advisory firm Automobility and head of Chrysler’s Northeast Asia operations from 2004 to 2008.

South Korea in Turmoil

by | 2006, 3 Dec 24 | | 0 Comments

Sheesh. The world seems to be coming apart at the seams. South Korea plunged into civil disarray after Yoon declares martial law, but then immediately backs down when the Parliament rescinds the order. There are a lot of Americans serving in South Korea protecting their border and they are a significant economic partner. We are living in very dangerous times.

“I am declaring a state of emergency in order to protect the constitutional order based on freedom and eradicate shameful pro-North Korea anti-state groups, that are stealing freedom and happiness of our people,” Yoon said on the country’s YTN news channel. He added that this would protect the country “from the threats of North Korea’s communist forces.”

 

“While the imposition of martial law may cause significant inconvenience to the law-abiding citizens who uphold the constitutional values of the Republic of Korea, I will strive to minimize these disruptions,” he added.

 

Yoon’s address was quickly followed by a proclamation from Martial Law Commander, Gen. Park Ahn-soo.

 

It said that “all political activities” would be banned, and that “all media and publications will be subject to the control of the Martial Law Command.”

 

“Strikes, work slowdowns, and gatherings that incite social disorder are forbidden,” it added. It also ordered “all medical professionals” to return to work within 48 hours.

 

“Violators of this proclamation will be subject to arrest, detention, and search and seizure without a warrant under Article 9 of the Martial Law Act,” it said.

Zelenskyy Pushes for NATO Membership

by | 1602, 30 Nov 24 | | 4 Comments

No.

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — An offer of NATO membership to territory under Kyiv’s control would end “the hot stage of the war” in Ukraine, but any proposal to join the military alliance should be extended to all parts of the country that fall under internationally recognized borders, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a broadcast interview.

 

Zelenskyy’s remarks on Friday signaled a possible way forward to the difficult path Ukraine faces to future NATO membership. At their summit in Washington in July, the 32 members declared Ukraine on an “irreversible” path to membership.

 

However, one obstacle to moving forward has been the view that Ukraine’s borders would need to be clearly demarcated before it could join so that there can be no mistaking where the alliance’s pact of mutual defense would come into effect.

 

“You can’t give an invitation to just one part of a country,” Zelenskyy said in an excerpt of the interview with Sky News. “Why? Because thus you would recognize that Ukraine is only that territory of Ukraine and the other one is Russia.”

First, Russia, and more specifically, Putin, will not stand for it. Ukraine joining NATO is a red line for him and the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO helped precipitate this war. To understand why, look at a map. For centuries, Russia has feared invasion from the West. That fear is not without basis. See: Adolphus, Napoleon, Hitler, and many others who would have liked to try.

Russia’s western border is very long with few natural boundaries. To counter this, Russia’s traditional foreign policy has been to create and manage a buffer zone by conquering territory or leveraging allied buffer states. It has been this way for centuries.

Ukraine has a long border that juts into the southwest corner of Russia. Russia, and more specifically, Putin, views a NATO country that close to Moscow to be an existential threat. You may disagree with the argument that Putin’s fears are unfounded because NATO is a defensive organization. Your disagreement does not matter to Russia. Put yourself in their shoes. If China or Russia formed a military alliance with Canada or Mexico, we’d be a bit skittish too.

Second, there is nothing but downside for NATO countries to allow Ukraine to join. That math may have been a bit different before the war, but we must deal with the realities before us. Ukraine’s military capacity has been severely depleted. They bring nothing to the alliance. Instead, Ukraine would be outsourcing their military defense to the other NATO countries. They would be a military welfare state.

At the same time, allowing Ukraine into NATO dramatically increases the threat of a violent confrontation with Russia. See above. Put together, Ukraine joining NATO would obligate NATO countries to defend it while increasing the likelihood of needing to do so. It may not happen right away, but it will happen. The geopolitical realities don’t change even if we reach a temporary peace in Ukraine. It’s all upside for Ukraine. It’s all downside for every other NATO country.

Zelenskyy is looking for a way out of the war with the prospect of the military gravy train drying up. We should not let the prospect of a near-term peace doom us to a long-term war with a nuclear power.

Ceasefire in Lebanon

by | 1928, 26 Nov 24 | | 4 Comments

May peace take hold.

Under the terms of the ceasefire, over 60 days Hezbollah will remove its fighters and weapons from the area between the Blue Line – the unofficial border between Lebanon and Israel – and the Litani river, about 30km (20 miles) to the north.

 

Hezbollah fighters will be replaced by Lebanese army forces in that area, who will ensure that infrastructure or weaponry is removed and that it cannot be rebuilt, according to a senior US official.

 

Over the same 60 days, Israel will gradually withdraw its remaining forces and civilians, Biden said, adding that it would enable civilians on both sides of the border to return to their homes.

Massive Chinese Hack of Networks Threatens National Security

by | 1622, 23 Nov 24 | , , | 1 Comment

We shouldn’t have to say it, but China is not our friend.

(CNN) — Top telecom executives met with US national security officials at the White House on Friday as concerns mount over a long-running Chinese cyber-espionage campaign that has targeted some of the most senior US political figures in the country.

The hackers burrowed deep into some major US telecom providers to spy on phone calls and text messages and have proved difficult to kick out of some networks, people briefed on the matter said.

[…]

The hack is shaping up to be one of the biggest cyber and national security challenges facing the incoming Trump administration.

It is “by far” the “worst telecom hack in our nation’s history,” Sen. Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia and chairman of the intelligence committee, told CNN.

But the full scope of the hack, who it affects and its impact on national security are still being investigated.

The FBI has notified fewer than 150 victims, most in the Washington, DC, area, according to Warner. But all of those victims have likely called or sent texts to numerous people, meaning the number of records accessed by the hackers is likely far greater. The hackers could listen to the calls of specific targets for certain periods of time, according to Warner.

US officials and private cyber experts are keeping a running tally of the number of telecom firms breached. US broadband and internet providers AT&T, Verizon and Lumen have all been targeted in the hacking effort, CNN previously reported.

Maori Protest Equal Rights Bill

by | 2106, 19 Nov 24 | , | 1 Comment

Interesting stuff. I’m certainly not an expert on New Zealand politics, but it appears that, in response to historic injustices against the Maori people, the laws have gradually come to favor them with special privileges. This bill would reset their laws to a status of everyone being equal under the law. The Maori people are opposing equality. This is something we may see in the U.S. some day if/when people get frustrated with the Native American tribes having special privileges under the law.

The ACT Party asserts that the treaty has been misinterpreted over the decades and that this has led to the formation of a dual system for New Zealanders, where Maori and white New Zealanders have different political and legal rights. Seymour says that misinterpretations of the treaty’s meaning have effectively given Maori people special treatment. The bill calls for an end to “division by race”.

 

Seymour said that the principle of “ethnic quotas in public institutions”, for example, is contrary to the principle of equality.

 

The bill seeks to set specific definitions of the treaty’s principles, which are currently flexible and open to interpretation. These principles would then apply to all New Zealanders equally, whether they are Maori or not.

 

According to Together for Te Tiriti, an initiative led by ActionStation Aotearoa, the bill will allow the New Zealand government to govern all New Zealanders and consider all New Zealanders equal under the law. Activists say this will effectively disadvantage the Maori people because they have been historically oppressed.

Israel Finds Russian Arms in Lebanon

by | 1938, 19 Nov 24 | | 0 Comments

Russia continues to be the armory of evil.

TEL AVIV—As Israel advances its invasion of southern Lebanon, its troops are finding large troves of Russian weapons, confirming longstanding suspicions in Israel that Hezbollah is enhancing its fighting capacity with the help of sophisticated Russian arms.

Some of the weapons, which include modern Kornet antitank missiles manufactured as recently as 2020, were sent to southern Lebanon in recent years from Russian stockpiles in neighboring Syria, according to Syrian security officials and an Arab official. Russia has long provided arms to Syria’s military, as well as controlling its own warehouses in the country.

Crimea is Gone

by | 0914, 9 Nov 24 | | 0 Comments

Ultimately, it’s up to Ukraine and Russia to end the war. Our choice, as Americans, is to decide how much more we will finance and how and whether we will use our power to help bring it to an end. But this is correct. If Zelensky wants to reclaim Crimea or expand the borders of Ukraine elsewhere, then there is not a path to peace.

A senior adviser to President-elect Donald Trump says the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to gain back territory occupied by Russia.

 

Bryan Lanza, a Republican party strategist, told the BBC the Trump administration would ask Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his version of a “realistic vision for peace”.

 

“And if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he’s not serious,” he said. “Crimea is gone.”

 

[…]

 

Mr Lanza, Trump’s political adviser since his 2016 campaign, did not mention areas of eastern Ukraine, but he said regaining Crimea from Russia was unrealistic and “not the goal of the United States”.

 

“When Zelensky says we will only stop this fighting, there will only be peace once Crimea is returned, we’ve got news for President Zelensky: Crimea is gone,” he told the BBC World Service’s Weekend programme.

 

“And if that is your priority of getting Crimea back and having American soldiers fight to get Crimea back, you’re on your own.”

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