Republican Gov. Scott Walker leads Democratic challenger Mary Burke 50% to 43% among likely voters in a new survey by the Marquette University Law School.
That represents a change from other surveys in recent weeks — including Marquette’s previous poll two weeks ago — showing the race essentially tied.
Marquette surveyed 1,164 likely voters from last Thursday through Sunday. The poll has margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The race is much tighter among all registered voters — with Walker leading Burke 46% to 45%.
the shift toward Walker among the most likely voters in the poll reflects a spike in the share of Republicans who say they are certain to vote.
In Marquette’s last poll, 82% of Republicans and 80% of Democrats said they were certain to vote.
In the new poll, 93% of Republicans and 82% of Democrats said they were certain to vote. Those numbers, reflecting a potential turnout gap between the parties, are similar to what voters were reporting before the recall election of 2012, which Walker won by 7 points.
From July 29 to Oct. 20, Walker raised $10.4 million and Burke raised $10.2 million, according to their campaigns. Burke said she has put $5 million of her own money into the race, with about $4.5 million of that coming in recent months.
Like it or not, fundraising is one of the best indicators of a candidate’s real support. Anybody can say that they support a candidate, but it takes a real supporter to part with their own money to help finance the campaign. The fact that Burke raised half as much as Walker in the final months of the campaign tells us that her campaign has failed to catch fire in the grass roots and also failed to attract many of the big donors who are willing to bet on her victory.
In light of this fundraising report, the move by Burke to bring the unpopular president into Wisconsin today to campaign in an overwhelmingly Democratic district (boost turnout) and attend a high-dollar fundraiser (raise the big money that Burke can’t) makes a lot of sense.
Doug Perry, a retired teacher and former president of the Greenfield Education Association, is now a school board member in South Milwaukee. He voiced his disappointment over Walker’s silence in a letter published by the Wisconsin Education Association Council and the Capital Times opinion section.
Perry said he was “insulted and embarrassed” for his constituents and the children in his district by Walker’s refusal to answer the questions WASB posed.
“So the WASB, which is a member-driven organization of 424 communities that supports, promotes and advances the interests of public education in Wisconsin, is now an ‘interest group’?
Interest group, also called special interest group or pressure group, any association of individuals or organizations, usually formally organized, that, on the basis of one or more shared concerns, attempts to influence public policy in its favour. All interest groups share a desire to affect government policy to benefit themselves or their causes.
Wisconsinites are already heading to the polls for the general election with the start of early voting Monday. If the polls are accurate, most voters made up their mind about the governor’s race long ago and very few are going to change their minds. What will matter most is who, and how many, decides to get off their duff and vote. When we wake up Nov. 5, the result will look obvious with the benefit of hindsight, but as we peer into the near future, obvious is not the word that comes to mind.
I will go to the polls to cast my vote for Scott Walker for the third time in four years. Frankly, given the progress that Wisconsin has made during Walker’s first term, I see no reason to replace him — especially with a Madison one-percenter who hasn’t been employed for the better part of a decade.
Walker signed a tremendous amount of consequential legislation since becoming governor. Walker signed the bill finally allowing for concealed carry in Wisconsin. This came after concealed carry had thrice been thwarted by Democrats in the past few years despite strong public support for it and 48 other states already allowing it. Almost 250,000 Wisconsinites are now permitted to exercise their right to carry a concealed weapon.
One cannot write about Walker’s record without mentioning Act 10 and its impact on the state. For the first time in generations, Act 10 allowed all levels of government to get a handle on the largest component of most government budgets — personnel costs. Here in West Bend, we have seen the tools made available by Act 10 used by the county, city and school district. For the first time since anyone can remember, almost every unit of government is talking about frozen or declining tax levies. Meanwhile, government services are as good as or better than they have ever been.
On taxes, Walker has signed multiple tax cuts, thus putting billions of dollars back into citizens’ pockets. He reduced and simplified the state income tax. He signed multiple property tax cuts.
Perhaps most impressively, Walker signed legislation reducing the tax withholding tables by 10 percent. While not a tax cut, it reduced the penchant of state government withholding too much from every Wisconsinites’ paychecks just to give it back to the taxpayers in the form of a tax refund. Taxpayers are able to keep more of their own money instead of being forced to give it to the state government as an interestfree loan.
Even with these substantial tax cuts and increasing state spending in two consecutive budgets (something with which I vehemently disagree), the state’s financial standing has not been this good in years. The state of Wisconsin finished its last fiscal year with a $517 million surplus. If the history of this governor is any guide, a good chunk of that surplus is likely to end up back in the pockets of taxpayers in the form of even more tax cuts. Meanwhile, all of Wisconsin’s priorities are being generously funded including the rainy day fund, which is 16,500 percent greater than it was the first day Walker sat in the capitol as governor.
In the area of education, Wisconsin is surging ahead. High school graduation rates have improved since Walker became governor. Our students’ ACT scores, which have historically been high, now rank second in the nation. Third-grade reading scores are up. Walker’s support for the expansion of school choice has led to opportunities for thousands of kids to find and fund the educational option in which they can succeed. As people around the nation complained about the skyrocketing cost of college education, Walker did something about it by enacting a freeze on tuition for the past two years. This freeze has saved college kids and their families millions of dollars and Walker proposed to continue the freeze and expand it to technical colleges.
On the economy, Wisconsin’s unemployment rate has dropped to 5.5 percent. That is the lowest unemployment rate since 2008 and almost half a point below the national average. Under Walker, the state has added 111,000 private sector jobs.
Despite the massive upheaval in Wisconsin when the liberals revolted and forced a recall election where the citizens of Wisconsin affirmed their support for Walker, the state is better off than it was four years ago. Unemployment is down. There are more jobs. Taxes are down. Civil rights are expanding. Education is improving. The state budget is running at a surplus while responsible local governments are using Act 10 to balance their budgets while cutting taxes.
Could it be better? Sure. It could always be better. But Wisconsin is far better off with Walker as our governor than without him. He has certainly amassed an impressive record of achievements and positive results that would be the envy of any governor in the nation. For this, and for what Walker can accomplish in a second term, he deserves our votes.
(Owen Robinson’s column runs Tuesdays in the Daily News.)
“Jobs are not the problem,” Walker continued. “Connecting people to those jobs with the skills they need and, more importantly, getting people off of the couch and off the dependence who are able and into those jobs, making it more effective, a bigger incentive for them to get back to work is really the difference.”
[…]
For a statement that is accurate but needs clarification, our rating is Mostly True.
DOA said this afternoon the state finished the last fiscal year with a gross balance of $516.9 million.
The Department of Revenue reported in August that tax collections for 2013-14 came in $281.2 million lower than previous projections. Today’s annual fiscal report added in actual expenditures in assessing the state’s general fund.
The report said expenses came in $165 million less than projections.
MADISON, WI (WTAQ) – Governor Scott Walker says he’s thinking about trashing Wisconsin’s gasoline tax, and replacing it with a sales tax instead.
Of course, Walker did not share any specifics. He is just floating the idea at the moment. What do you think?
Conceptually it is an interesting idea. One of the problems with transportation funding is that the gas tax is a flat per-gallon tax. As fuel mileage has increased and alternative forms if fuel become more readily available, the revenue from the gas tax has remained stagnant as transportation spending has increased. This leaves a gap.
Walker’s idea is to get rid of the gas tax as it is today and replace it with a sales tax on gas. This has the advantage of fluctuating with the price of gas and is less dependent on the gallons consumed. It also has the advantage of being a standard mechanism that can be applied easily to alternative fuels too – thus making it easier to make sure everyone using the transportation infrastructure is paying for it.
The down side is that in times of high gas prices, a sales tax will scale accordingly and be painful for consumers to pay. And, although Walker said that the new tax structure would not result in more money going to Madison, the only way to prevent that would for there to be a cap on the tax of some sort. That would be difficult, but not impossible, to manage.
It is an idea worth considering, but it does not solve the issue that transportation spending is just too high in Wisconsin. While I am all for considering better funding methodologies for transportation needs, we must first get the spending under control.
The first debate between Burke and Walker just wrapped up. I’ll have some comments later. Until then… go.
UPDATE: Overall… yawn. There were a couple of interesting moments, but most of the debate was pretty boring. The questions were predictably from the liberal talking points most of the time and the responses were largely right on script for both candidates. The most interesting moment was when each candidate was asked to talk about something good about their opponent. Walker went first and lauded Burke for her philanthropic work. Burke, despite having all of the time during Walker’s response to think, started with an “uh” and a long pause before giving a bland response about Walker’s work “in the community” including his work regarding domestic violence – directly contradicting one of her “war on women” campaign planks.
The fight for the female vote comes as the race remains razor-thin, despite a massive gender divide. Last week’s Marquette University Law School poll showed Walker with a 28-point lead among men, but Burke with a 14-point advantage among women.
Have you ever noticed how these stories are positioned as the candidates needing to woo the female vote? It appears to me that Burke has a lot of work to do to woo the male vote.
A new Marquette University Law School poll on Wednesday showed Gov. Scott Walker with a 50%-45% lead over challenger Mary Burke among likely voters.
Among registered voters, Walker leads 46%-45%.
The good news is that Walker is moving in the right direction in the polls. With a 5 point lead 5 weeks out from the election, the national money may start drying up for Burke.
Schimel is also moving in the right direction.
In the race for attorney general, Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel, a Republican, leads Jefferson County District Attorney Susan Happ, a Democrat, among likely voters, 41%-39%.
Among registered voters, Schimel and Happ are tied at 37%, with 22% undecided.
I do get a chuckle out of the fact that the very same liberals who are griping that Walker may not serve an entire term are the same ones who attempted a recall to prevent him from finishing his first.
ASHWAUBENON – While Gov. Scott Walker lays out plans for a second term in Madison, he will not promise to serve the entire four years if the 2016 national elections beckon.
More NARAL mail today! I think someone must have spammed me by putting my name on some lefty list. As evidence, I also got the Penzeys catalog. It is interesting to see their marketing thrust though.
Jeff Kaminiski, president of United Steelworkers Local 2006, said this week he called the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s Madison office and asked that Walker be fined.
“Gov. Walker’s violations send the wrong message to anyone trying follow the rules and come home safe at the end of the day,” Kaminski said in a statement. “Safety is the backbone of the union movement. We want all workers to come home safe at end of the day, we can’t have an example like this playing statewide.”
The ad does illustrate multiple violations of OSHA rules for working in trenches, said Adam Finkel, executive director of the Penn Program on Regulation at the University of Pennsylvania and a former OSHA director of health regulations under President Bill Clinton.
The good news is that they are doing this. If this is all the liberals can muster against Walker, it’s pretty small ball. It means they know they are losing on the issues.
As for the complaint itself, here is the ad for reference:
It’s not the best ad in the world, but it makes a point. What’s so stupid about the complaint, in addition to the fact that it is a political ad and not a workplace, is that OSHA doesn’t even apply. According to OSHA:
OSHA covers most private sector employers and their workers in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and other U.S. jurisdictions either directly through federal OSHA or through an OSHA-approved state program. Workers at state and local government agencies are not covered by federal OSHA, but have OSH Act protections if they work in those states that have an OSHA-approved state program. To find out if you are in a state with an OSHA–approved state program visit our website at www.osha.gov/dcsp/osp/index.html.
And if you follow the like, Wisconsin does not have an OSHA-approved state program. So in his role as a state employee, OSHA does not apply to Walker. In his role as a candidate, he is not an employee of any sort and OSHA does not apply.
One would think that if “safety is the backbone of the union movement” is true, as Kaminski contends, that he would have taken 30 seconds to see which safety regulations might apply before opening his mouth.
Given the fact that the Democrats have dominated the media airwaves all summer, the John Doe prosecutors continue to operate for the benefit of the Burke campaign, and the mainstream media has completely passed on challenging Burke on anything of substance while hammering Walker, these polls are positive numbers for Walker. That being said, Walker still has a lot of work to do in the next 7 weeks to close the deal.
Now we’re talking. Just a few days ago I complained about Walker needing a second term agenda and he released a pretty good start to one. Some of the agenda items are pretty boilerplate, like “Provide tax relief for manufacturing and agriculture,” but some of them have some teeth. Let’s take a look at a few.
Cut property taxes so that the levy on a typical home in 2018 is lower than it was in 2010.
Reduce income taxes so that they are lower in 2018 than they are today
Awesome. While not promising a specific amount (lesson learned), Walker is committing to reducing two of the big three taxes. That’s a very good start and adds to the accomplishments in reducing taxes in the first term.
Continue the freeze on UW tuition.
This is another great item and one that is already very popular. As the parent of a kid in a UW school, this is huge. Not only does it help with keeping the cost of college under some control (it’s still too high), but the stability allows for better financial planning for the duration. Many families had to include a normal 5%-10% yearly tuition increase when planning how to pay for a degree. The tuition freeze helps make it easier to plan for, and pay for, tuition that is no longer increasing faster than incomes.
Going a little out of order, but:
Freeze technical college tuition
This is new and mirrors the benefits already in place with a UW tuition freeze. Frankly, this is long overdue, but it doesn’t address the biggest issue with technical colleges. Shamefully, Wisconsin’s technical colleges are run by unelected boards with taxing authority. They are unaccountable to the taxpayers and have routinely increased taxes and spending at rates far and above those of elected boards. Walker should make it a goal to either make the boards that run technical colleges elected, or strip them of their taxing authority. Without that change, the technical college boards could simply increase taxes even more to continue spending whatever they want even in the face of a tuition freeze.
Still, freezing tuition for the technical colleges is a good start.
These will be the most controversial of Walker’s goals, but they shouldn’t be.
Put common sense limits on the amount of time able-bodied, working-age childless adults can be on public assistance.
“Common sense” will be the point of contention, but it’s difficult to argue against such a time limit. If you are able-bodied without any dependents, then at some point it is reasonable for the taxpayers should expect you to become a contributor to the tax base instead of a recipient of the fruits of others’ labor. What is the right amount of time? I don’t know. Twelve months seems more than generous.
Require a drug test for those requesting unemployment and able-bodied, working-age adults requesting Food Stamps from the state.
This is very reasonable too. If one has their hand out seeking financial support from others, it is reasonable for those putting money in that hand to expect a level of responsibility. If a person has money for drugs, then they shouldn’t be permitted to receive the taxpayers’ largesse. Also, if a person is high, it is reasonable to assume that they are also not putting forth their best effort to obtain employment and self-sustainability.
Walker’s objective is noticeably silent, however, on what should happen if a person fails a drug test. He does not state the goal of stopping unemployment or food stamp payments in the event of a person failing a drug test. That is merely my assumption and preference.
Before cutting off benefits in such a circumstance, significant thought will have to be put into managing it. If people are cut off of the safety net, they will react in some fashion. Some will get their stuff together and find work to sustain themselves. Some will rely more heavily on private support systems like churches and family. Some will move to another state with a more generous welfare system. And some will resort to crime. Three of those four outcomes are positive.
Require working-age childless adults receiving food stamps or unemployment benefits participate in employment training or part-time work.
This item is easy and commonly done in other states. Honestly, I thought that this was already in place from when Tommy Thompson signed W2, but perhaps it has been relaxed more than I thought.
Overall, Walker’s plan is an excellent start on a conservative agenda for his second term. There are some solid proposals that would be real, long-term reforms to benefit Wisconsin.
Wisconsin election officials were scrambling Monday to deal with a federal appeals court’s ruling reinstating the requirement that voters show photo identification when casting ballots.
The law had been on hold, after being in effect only for the low-turnout February 2012 primary, following a series of court orders blocking it. But a three-judge panel of the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago, just hours after hearing oral arguments, said late Friday that the state could proceed with implementing the law while it weighs the merits of the case.
[…]
“We’re all in a holding pattern right now waiting for clarification,” Albrecht said.
Perhaps it is just the reporter’s choice of the word “scrambling,” but why is there scrambling? And why are clerks in a “holding pattern?” This law has been on the books for three years. It has been held up in court for a while, but there was always a very good chance that it would pass constitutional muster. Even if it fell short, there was a very good chance that the Republican-led legislature would tweak it to make sure it was okay with the courts. After all, over 30 states already have some form of Voter ID. In other words, there was every reason to believe that this law would come into force in Wisconsin one way or another. Furthermore, the law was already active for one election – even if it was a primary election – before it was held up in court.
So why is there any “scrambling?” Wouldn’t a competent Government Accountability Board already have gone through the effort to prepare all relevant instructions and policies in preparation for the law’s implementation? If the GAB had done their job correctly, all that should have been necessary was to dust off the procedures from when they implemented the law the first time and move forward. I hope the reporter’s characterization of “scrambling” is overblown.
On another note from the same story, this is just funny:
“Scott Walker knows that we can win, and he believes that efforts to keep voters from getting to the polls is a win for Republicans,” Burke spokesman Joe Zepecki said in a fundraising email late Friday.
The law was passed in 2011 – three years ago and at least two years before Mary Burke even entered the scene. Walker hasn’t had anything to do with it since signing it. It has been in the hands of the courts. For Zepecki to suggest that Walker somehow got the 7th Circuit Court to lift the stay on the law because he “knows that [Burke] can win” is beyond ridiculous.
The latest release this week of tens of thousands of documents gathered during the first John Doe investigation demonstrated employees in then-County Executive Scott Walker’s office doing mostly routine business. And one thing that seemed routine was Walker emailing thoughts on key policy matters to his friends in conservative media.
For example, in February 2007, Walker sent unsolicited emails in rapid succession to radio hosts Charlie Sykes, Mark Belling and Jay Weber and conservative blogger Owen Robinson giving them a heads up about a Milwaukee County Board and City Council press conference about the Kenosha-Racine-Milwaukee rail line.
It should go without saying, but what Walker did was not illegal. It wasn’t even uncommon. People who share political beliefs and values swap stories all the time. In fact, I seem to remember something in the constitution about freedom of association, but I could be wrong.
